10/8 MLB HITTERS LIST & PROPS

1. Jackson Chourio — HR / Hit / Total Bases Prop

• HR Prop (Over 0.5 HR)

• Why: Chourio is being priced among the better HR props — sportsbooks list him at +470 to hit a HR in playoff game lines.

• Narrative angle: He’s one of the Brewers’ best bounce-back “go big” batters when he’s locked in. In Game 2, Chourio smoked a three-run HR as part of Milwaukee’s rally.

• Hits / Total Bases Over

• If the HR line “too steep,” targeting a multi-hit or total bases over can capture his upside without needing him to go deep.

2. William Contreras — HR / RBI / Hit Prop

• HR Prop (Over 0.5 HR)

• He’s listed in HR markets at +680 in the playoff lines.

• Narrative: Contreras gives the Brewers some middle-of-order pop behind Chourio. Jameson Taillon is vulnerable to right-handers, that’s favorable.

• Alternate play: Over 0.5 RBI or Over 0.5 hit (depending on matchup) may carry more value, especially if he bats 5th or 6th.

3. Andrew Vaughn — HR / Hit Prop

• HR Prop (Over 0.5 HR)

• He’s on HR prop boards at +750 in the playoff markets.

• Narrative: After a slow stretch, a big spot like this could be “surprise power” territory. Also used in lineup stacking or middle-of-order exposure.

• Hit Prop

• If HR market is too ambitious, Over 0.5 hits is safer — Vaughn is more likely to get a base-hit in any given game.

4. Joey Ortiz — Total Bases / Hit / Under HR

• Under HR (0.5 HR)

• Odds likely favor under, especially given his lower power profile. In fact, scripts on Ortiz projects low HR expectation.

• Narrative: Ortiz is projected to hit 8th in the order. Lower in the order tends to see fewer RBI or multi-run-scoring chances.

• Also, the venue may not be HR-friendly from his zone / direction.

• Total Bases / Hit Props (Over 0.5 TB, Over 0.5 Hit)

• The model for Ortiz suggests ~0.8 total bases.

• Over 0.5 total bases (i.e., at least a single) is more achievable given occasional contact.

5. Cal Raleigh — HR Prop

• HR Prop (Over 0.5 HR)

• The HR board lists Cal Raleigh at +196 as one of the top HR props in the Mariners’ playoff games.

• Narrative: Raleigh’s power is well known, and in playoff atmospheres, power arms can be exploitable.

• Because the HR line is aggressively short, this is one of your “safer” power plays if you believe in an offense showing up.

6. JP Crawford — Hit / Total Bases / HR

• Hit Prop Over 0.5

• The odds for Hits 0.5 are around −140 to go over.

• Narrative: Even though Crawford’s HR upside is limited, he’s consistent as a contact guy. Using him as part of the “guaranteed hit” core can anchor your card.

• For HR, the line is steep: +1300 to hit a HR.

• Total Bases Over 0.5

• Because he often puts the ball in play and can stretch singles/doubles, this is a modest upside play.

7. Jorge Polanco — HR Prop

• HR Prop (Over 0.5 HR)

• He’s listed at +520 in HR odds boards.

• Narrative: Polanco gives Seattle some depth power behind Raleigh and the top lineup. In a close game, a solo shot or run-producing hit is plausible.

• Alternate: Over 0.5 hit or RBI may offer better risk/reward if the HR line is expensive.

8. Ben Rortvedt — Hit / Over 0.5 Hits

• Hit Prop (Over 0.5 Hits)

• The lines show Over 0.5 hits at +135 (vs Under) for Rortvedt.

• Narrative: As a catcher not known for power, your best play is just getting a base-hit. He may slot low in the order, but catchers occasionally surprise with late-game tiebreakers.

9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Prop: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+EV play if odds are -110 or better)

• Why it fits: Vlad’s ~403 wRC+ shows he’s consistently above league average, and his batted-ball metrics (hard hit %, exit velo, barrels) are elite. Even if he doesn’t homer, he’s the type to lace a double or stack multiple singles in playoff pressure situations.

• Vegas/lineup storyline: Oddsmakers often juice his HR prop heavily because of his name value. Instead, targeting total bases takes advantage of his ability to find gaps even when he isn’t leaving the yard. If he’s hitting in the 3-spot, he’ll see plenty of opportunities with runners on base.

• Alternative: RBI Over 0.5 (especially if Toronto is expected to score runs — high implied team total).

10. Daulton Varsho

Prop: To Hit a Home Run (Over 0.5 HR, odds usually +400 to +600)

• Why it fits: Varsho is posting a 430 wRC+ this postseason , and his power surge makes him one of the true X-factors in Toronto’s lineup. He can pull the ball with authority, especially against right-handed pitching. In playoff games where momentum swings on a single swing, Varsho is exactly the type of hitter to deliver.

• Vegas/lineup storyline: He’s undervalued compared to Vlad in HR markets, so his odds carry better return. If he’s slotted 4th/5th, he’s likely to come up with RBI chances behind Vlad and Bichette.

• Alternative safer play: Over 0.5 RBI — Varsho’s wRC+ and run-producing spot in the order make him a great candidate to drive in at least one.

11. Ernie Clement

Prop: Over 0.5 Hits (when facing a

• Why it fits: Clement’s overall wRC+ is 327 for the postseason, That makes him a sneaky matchup-dependent bat.

• Vegas/lineup storyline: Sportsbooks typically price Clement’s props long, because he isn’t a big name and usually hits low in the order. That creates value in spot starts or platoon roles. Against lefties, he’s proven to produce contact and get on base — perfect for a “to get a hit” prop.

• Alternative: Total Bases Over 0.5 — still low bar, gives you win equity if he sneaks a double down the line.