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Beating the Book: Week 5

It's annoying for the second week in a row I was having a decent week before losing both the Sunday and Monday night games. Even worse, we were 3-0 in the SuperContest before falling to 3-2 courtesy of the Bucs and Raiders. Overall, I finished 8-8, but at least won my best bet (Bears.)

This week, I especially like the Saints and 49ers.


THURSDAY NIGHT

Rams -2.5 at Seahawks


This is exactly where I set the line, so it's essentially a coin-flip for me. I guess I'll buy the Rams low off the Arizona blowout, but I don't like laying wood on the road between two division rivals.

Rams 31 - 27


EARLY GAMES

Jets +3 at Falcons*

I forgot this game was in London when I made the line. I thought the Jets should get 3.5 in Atlanta, so three on a neutral field is probably enough. Take the points.

Jets 20 - 19

* game in London

Dolphins +10 at Buccaneers

This is more or less the right line. The Dolphins with Jacoby Brissett are a borderline doormat, but the Bucs were really missing Rob Gronkowski Sunday night, and their secondary is decimated. But give me the Bucs, as I don't think Brissett can exploit them.

Buccaneers 31 - 16

Eagles +3.5 at Panthers

This doesn't seem like enough points, so the game strikes me as trappy, but I'll stick to my guns and lay the wood. Take the Panthers.

Panthers 27 - 23

Saints -1.5 at Football Team

The Football Team was lucky to beat the Falcons, needing a kick return TD and last minute score to get it done. The Saints lost to the Giants in overtime, but I expect them to outmuscle the Team at the point of attack and win this game decisively. Lay the wood.

Saints 26 - 19

Titans -4 at Jaguars

Urban Meyer is a real coach, obviously, but I'll still take the points after watching Trevor Lawrencewake up against the Bengals last Thursday.

Titans 24 - 23

Lions +7.5 at Vikings

The Lions have stayed in games, but their defense is poor, and the Vikings are at home and at 1-3 a desperate animal. Lay the wood.

Vikings 33 - 17

Broncos +1 at Steelers

The Broncos were exposed last week, and if Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) can't go, the Steelers should have their way with Drew Lock. Lay the point.

Steelers 19 - 16

Packers -3 at Bengals

This is right where I set the line. I believe in Joe Burrow and the offense and expect them to hang with the Packers in Cincinnati. Take the home dog.

Bengals 27 - 26

Patriots -9 at Texans

I made this line only 7.5, so this is good value, but the Texans offense is so bad, I think the Patriots will cover. Lay the wood.

Patriots 23 - 6

LATE GAMES

Bears +5.5 at Raiders

The Bears held on against the Lions, but the Raiders are a decent team, and I expect them to roll at home. Lay the wood.

Raiders 31 - 20

Browns +1.5 at Chargers

The Browns defense has been awfully good, but the Chargers are also stout defensively, and they have the better quarterback. Lay the wood.

Chargers 24 - 20

Giants +7 at Cowboys

The Giants look like a real team finally, and while the Cowboys look like serious contenders, give me the points in a matchup between division rivals.

Cowboys 30 - 24

49ers +5.5 at Cardinals

The Cardinals destroyed the Rams in Los Angeles and sit at 4-0, while the 49ers have a rookie quarterback and inconsistent defense. But I'll buy-low/sell-high here in a game between division rivals. Take the points.

49ers 30 - 29

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bills +2.5 at Chiefs

The Bills have the better defense, but they've also played the Steelers, Jacoby Brissett Dolphins, Football Team and Texans, not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. The Chiefs can light up anyone and should be favored at home, but I expect the game to be so close the points might matter. Take the Bills.

Chiefs 31 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Colts +7 at Ravens

The Colts aren't good, but they're scrappy, and I expect them to be up for this game. The Ravens should hold them off, but I see this being a fight. Take the points.

Ravens 26 - 20

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