Best Basketball Bets Today: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Wednesday, December 17

We’re kicking things off the right way today with a Day One parlay that blends college hoops edges + NBA safety. This isn’t about forcing chaos — it’s about leaning into matchups, pace, and consistency.

Let’s break it down 👇

🏀 Creighton @ Xavier

✅ Xavier Moneyline

Xavier does two things at an elite level: protect the ball and knock down threes — and that’s exactly where Creighton struggles defensively.

The Musketeers rank #1 in offensive turnover percentage nationally, while Creighton sits near the bottom of the country in generating defensive turnovers. That means Xavier should be able to get a shot up almost every possession, which is huge considering 40% of their offense comes from three-point attempts.

Creighton also allows opponents to shoot 34% from deep, and while that doesn’t scream “bad defense” on paper, the volume Xavier creates from beyond the arc makes this a dangerous matchup — especially at home.

With the game in Cincinnati and Xavier playing to its strengths, I’m backing the home team to handle business outright.

🏀 Vanderbilt @ Memphis

✅ Over 153.5 (Alternate Total)

This game sets up for points, points, and more points.

Vanderbilt has a massive edge on the offensive glass, while Memphis is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. That alone creates extra possessions, but it doesn’t stop there.

Both teams get to the free-throw line at a high rate:

• Memphis allows a ton of trips to the stripe

• Vanderbilt not only draws fouls, but converts nearly 76% from the line

On the flip side, Vanderbilt’s defense fouls at an alarming rate, giving Memphis easy scoring chances with the clock stopped.

High tempo + rebounding + free throws = perfect over environment. I’m taking the safer alternate total and letting the game flow.

🏀 Grizzlies @ Timberwolves

✅ Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (Alternate Spread)

This is a classic alternate spread spot.

Memphis doesn’t need to win — they just need to stay competitive, and this number gives us plenty of breathing room. Even in tougher matchups, Memphis tends to hang around thanks to effort on the glass and free-throw opportunities.

With double digits in our pocket, this leg becomes about avoiding a blowout, not predicting perfection.

🏀 Cavaliers @ Bulls

✅ Donovan Mitchell 20+ Points

This is the definition of a stability leg.

Donovan Mitchell scoring 20+ is one of the most consistent plays in the NBA when he’s healthy. Usage, shot volume, and matchup all line up — and Chicago doesn’t have the perimeter defense to slow him down for four quarters.

This isn’t a ceiling play. It’s a floor play, and every great parlay needs one.

⭐ Fontaines 5 – Favorite Day One Parlay

4-Leg Parlay

• Xavier Moneyline

• Vanderbilt @ Memphis Over 153.5

• Memphis Grizzlies +10.5

• Donovan Mitchell 20+ Points

💰 Bonus Bet Play

• $100 → $306 payout

🧠 Final Thoughts

Day One isn’t about chasing miracles — it’s about building momentum.This card mixes:

• Matchup advantages

• Pace-driven totals

• Alternate lines for protection

• A proven NBA scorer for stability

We start smart.We stay disciplined.And we let the work do the talking.

🔒 Lock it in. You can’t win if you don’t lock.