top of page

Best Bets for Wednesday, June 8

I'm locking into an interleague game and an NL clash on Wednesday night's slate that I feel has some exploitable starting pitchers, and that therefore can lead to some solid offensive production for the opposition.


All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Jordan Lyles

Stroman has had quite the rollercoaster over his first nine starts in Chicago, going 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA and already having given up eight and nine runs in a pair of his starts. In contrast, the right-hander has also authored a pair of seven-inning blankings against the Brewers and White Sox, but overall, he does seem to be giving up hard contact more frequently than in the past. Stroman has allowed a career-high 7.8 percent barrel rate and career-high 91.3 mph exit velocity, along with a career-high 47.5 percent hard-hit rate. His .297 xBA and .358 xwOBA also underscore that he's flirted with – and encountered – plenty of trouble at times.

The story on Lyles isn't too dissimilar. Although he carries a serviceable 4.50 ERA, there are some indicators he's also due for a regression. Lyles is yielding a career-high 9.2 percent barrel rate and is allowing a .294 xBA and .367 xwOBA. Additionally, his 5.11 xERA suggests he's been lucky not to have more runs put up against him at times, and the fact he's allowing averages between .288 and .329 on four most-often-thrown pitches helps corroborate that theory. The Cubs haven't been an offensive powerhouse by any means, but they've been respectable in terms of their body of work on the road in the first 5 innings with a 10-11-4 mark against the moneyline and the seventh-most runs per first 5 innings (2.6).

MLB Best Bets for Cubs at Orioles

The Pick: Cubs moneyline – 1st 5 innings (-120) for 1.20unit

Secondary Pick: 2+ hits to be recorded in 1st inning (-132) for 1.32 unit

BET NOW Bet $5, Get $200 in Free Bets Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitchers: Antonio Senzatela vs. Alex Wood

Senzatela has been about as poor as his 5.40 ERA and 1.97 WHIP would suggest. The veteran right-hander has allowed a whopping 61 hits in 35 innings and has an abysmal 8.5 percent strikeout rate. He's still doing a good job keeping the ball in the park, but teams are torturing him with long innings. His .380 xBA and .423 xwOBA are about as bad as it gets in those categories for a big-league starter, and his 7.27 xERA suggests he's been fortunate to not have performed worse. Senzatela is also particularly struggling on the road with a 10.38 ERA, 2.19 WHIP and 0-2 mark across 8.2 innings. What's more, he's been hit hard by current Giants bats, allowing a collective .397/.465/.497 slash line to them in 90 career plate appearances. To top it off, San Francisco has been lethal against righties at home over the last month, producing a .262 average, .341 wOBA and 7.9 wRAA in that split.

Wood has had his share of troubles, but nowhere near on the level of his opposite number Wednesday. The lefty is pitching to a bit more contact than usual, but he's been impressive against the Rockies in two prior starts with a 1-0 mark and 2.79 ERA, a sample that includes 5.1-inning blanking of Colorado at Oracle Park on May 10. The Rockies have also had their share of trouble versus lefties on the road of late with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, .293 wOBA and 86 wRC+ in that split since May 1.

Finally, the fact the Giants check in with the second-most runs per first 5 innings per home game (3.64) and the Rockies are averaging the sixth fewest (1.83) in that split per road game further locks in the two picks.

MLB Best Bets for Rockies at Giants

The Pick: Giants first to 3 runs (-148) for 1.48 units

Secondary Pick: Giants to have highest-scoring inning (-140) for 1.40units

BET NOW Bet $5, Get $200 in Free Bets Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Cubs moneyline – 1st 5 innings (-120) for 1.20units

  • 2+ hits to be recorded in 1st inning (-132) of Cubs-Orioles for 1.32units

  • Giants first to 3 runs (-148) for 1.48 units

  • Giants to have highest-scoring inning (-140) for 1.40 units

12 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page