Devin Booker o29.5 points (-113), FanDuel
Entering play, Devin Booker is second in the NBA in scoring during the month of March, averaging 35.3 points on 22.8 field goal attempts per game. Tonight, we are getting a slight discount on Booker’s points prop, likely due to the tough overall matchup for the Phoenix Suns against the Milwaukee Bucks. However, the Bucks have been vulnerable against opposing guards of late, allowing 35 points to De’Aaron Fox, 28 points to Kevin Huerter, 36 points to Stephen Curry, 33 points to Bradley Beal, and 38 points to James Harden – each in the last 10 days. When Kevin Durant is out of the lineup for the Suns, Booker and Deandre Ayton are the clear leaders of this offense, having combined for 41.1% of the team’s total shot attempts last night against the Golden State Warriors. Expect Booker to have high usage again on Tuesday, and for him to have a great chance to hit the over on his points prop for the sixth time in his last seven games.
Scottie Barnes o26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113), FanDuel
In five games to begin the month of March, Scottie Barnes is averaging 15.6 shot attempts per game, including back-to-back contests with at least 19 field goal attempts. Tonight, he gets a matchup with the Denver Nuggets, which rank 22nd out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency on the road this season. In 31 home games this year, Barnes is averaging 28.8 points + rebounds + assists (PRA), compared to 26.1 PRA in 34 road contests. Barnes is shooting 48.0% from the floor and 34.7% from beyond-the-arc at home, compared to 42.7% from the field and 26.0% from beyond-the-arc on the road. Barnes has totaled at least eight rebounds + assists in 29 of his last 30 games overall, including at least 11 rebounds + assists in 21 of his last 30 contests, making his PRA a great look in this spot. Take the over.
Pascal Siakam o4.5 assists (-145), DraftKings
On the team’s recent five-game road trip, Pascal Siakam was underwhelming overall, averaging 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on 42% shooting from the field. Still, Siakam played at least 37 minutes in each contest, collecting at least five assists in three of those five games on 10.2 potential assists per game. Tonight, Siakam gets a favorable matchup at home against the Denver Nuggets, which rank 26th in opponent assists allowed per game across their last 10 trips to the hardwood. At home this season, Siakam is averaging 5.9 assists on 11.0 potential assists per game. According to props.cash, Siakam has eclipsed this market number in 22 of his last 27 home games, with three of his misses being games with exactly four assists. Simply, there is no good reason to pass on this play this evening, even with the heavy juice. The math makes sense. Take the over and live with the result.
Evan Mobley over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106)
This is a bit of a bloated number for Mobley, but he's in a really advantageous situation. The big man sees a +7% usage increase with Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen (and Kevin Love) off the floor -- both players set to miss Tuesday's game. That's amounted to 21.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per 36 minutes. Those are great numbers on average, but he's in a soft matchup against Charlotte's weak frontcourt featuring Nick Richards and P.J. Washington. Both players have shown some defensive upside, but they lack the polish to deal with Mobley.
Orlando Magic -5.0 at San Antonio Spurs It's not often that I find myself advocating for the Magic as a 5-point favorite, but to be fair, they only play the Spurs twice per year. While Franz Wagner's presence on the injury report is mildly concerning, the Spurs will be without Tre Jones, Malaki Branham and Romeo Langford, while Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are questionable. San Antonio is 29th in net rating and 30th in offense over the last 10 games, while Orlando has been trending closer to a league-average team. It's quite possible we see a complete skeleton crew on the floor for San Antonio, while Orlando hasn't shown any signs of shutting down, despite sitting in 13th in the Eastern Conference. Trey Murphy under 16.5 points vs. Lakers (-110) Yes, everyone is understandably excited about Murphy busting out for 41 points on Sunday versus a defensively-challenged Trail Blazers squad. But he's averaging 13.3 points per game over the season and 14.4 ppg over his last 13 games. Plus this is a deeper Laker squad that is starting to play defense. Over LA's last five games, they gave up 112 to NY, 112 to TOR, 103 to MEM, 113 to GS and 110 to MIN. Plus, hopefully, Brandon Ingram will return to the Pelicans lineup, which will take shots away from Murphy. Hey, 15 points from Murphy is still a quality night from the second-year player. Let's not get crazy. Even his at-home average of 14.6 ppg points to the Under.