Desmond Bane over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists at Lakers (-122)
While it's actually Jaren Jackson Jr. that sees the biggest usage bump with Ja Morant, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke off the court, I'm concerned about his matchup against Anthony Davis. With AD checking JJJ, I think more usage will funnel toward Bane, who most recently popped for 30 points on 22 shots, six assists and four rebounds in 35 minutes against the Clippers.
Markelle Fultz O14.5 points vs. Bucks
Fultz has been among my favorite player prop targets over the last month-plus as he continues to be an effective – and efficient – counting stats accumulator. Over his last 15 games, Fultz is up to 14.7 points per game on 51.5 percent shooting, while hitting better than 90 percent of his free throws. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday both out, I'm leaning toward Fultz's points prop tonight, but I'd also consider his PTS+AST (19.5) at a slightly worse value.
Mike Conley over 10.5 points (-115) vs. 76ers
Conley has averaged 13.6 points per game over his last five contests and is coming off a 24-point effort Saturday at Sacramento. The aging veteran had three nights to rest and should be fresh. The T-Wolves are still without guard Jaylen Nowell, which frees up about 10 field goal attempts for the rest of the Minnesota backcourt. James Harden, Tobias Harris, and PJ Tucker are all GTDs for Philly. Their absence, in particular Tucker and Harris, should soften the Sixer defense. In eight games with Minnesota, Conley's scoring is actually up a tick at 11.1 per contest. Without Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota needs scoring from others. I'm 21-17 on the season and in a bit of a slump, so feel free to fade.
Cameron Johnson o17.5 points (-145), DraftKings
Two days ago, we played this exact same line, but Cameron Johnson was an inefficient 3-for-13 from the field and failed to hit the over. Tonight, we are running it back. Since being acquired by the Brooklyn Nets, Johnson is averaging 18.2 points per game on 13.8 field goal attempts per game as the team’s second scoring option behind Mikal Bridges. Following consecutive poor shooting performances, Johnson gets an extremely favorable matchup this evening against the Houston Rockets, which rank 30th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in opponent field goal percentage, and 29th in opponent three-point percentage since the beginning of February. The volume has been there for Johnson, even in games in which he has gone under this market number. Trust him to knock down his shots tonight – take the over.
Mikal Bridges o4.5 rebounds (-120), PointsBet
Since joining the Brooklyn Nets, Mikal Bridges has eclipsed this market number in seven of nine games. In his last nine contests, Bridges is averaging 5.9 rebounds and 9.7 rebound chances. In that span, he has at least nine rebound chances in six of nine trips to the hardwood, including three games with at least 13 rebound chances. Tonight, Bridges has a less favorable matchup than he has had in recent games, but the volume and opportunity remain high enough to make him competitive at this number. Put faith in Bridges to deliver for us once again.
Anthony Edwards o2.5 three-pointers made (-110), DraftKings
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, but they have struggled mightily to defend the perimeter as of late, particularly on the road. Since February 1, Philadelphia ranks 16th in opponent three-point attempts and 27th in opponent three-point percentage in eight games away from home. Anthony Edwards is averaging 7.8 shot attempts from beyond-the-arc at home this year, compared to 6.7 attempts from beyond-the-arc on the road. Edwards has eclipsed this market number in six of his last nine home games, with two of his messes coming against teams that rank in the top-10 in opponent three-point percentage. Each of the last six guards to have a three-point prop released against the 76ers have hit the over, per props.cash. Expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night.