Spencer Dinwiddie over 2.5 turnovers (+115) vs. Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are forcing the most turnovers in the NBA (18.5 DTOV%) by a significant margin over the past month, and Dinwiddie has been the most turnover-prone player on the Nets lately. During the same stretch, the point guard is handing over 2.6 turnovers per game, so I like getting plus money on him going slightly over his average against an aggressive defense.
Mikal Bridges O26.5 PTS+REB vs. Cavaliers Bridges went under this number in Tuesday's meeting with the Cavs, but he also went an uncharacteristic 0-of-8 from beyond the arc. Prior to that game, he'd gone over 26.5 in four of his last five appearances, so I like his chances to go over with even a marginally better shooting night. Bridges continues to play heavy minutes with a nearly 31 percent usage rate over his last eight games. Immanuel Quickley over 12.5 points at Orlando (-110) This is based on the expectation that Jalen Brunson doesn't play tonight. Brunson injured his hand in last night's loss to Miami and is now questionable for tonight's second leg of the back-to-back. Quickley's minutes jump up 14 more per game when Brunson is out. He's also averaged 13.6 ppg this season and 17.0 ppg over his last 16 games. Yes, he's coming off a five-point stinker against the Heat. But tonight they face a Magic squad that ranks 17th in points allowed per game. Miami plays better D. Brunson is a week removed from missing five games due to a foot injury, so skipping the back-to-back seems wise. Hey, I'm a modest 24-21 on the season, so feel free to fade.
Jalen Williams o15.5 points (-110), DraftKings
Entering play, Jalen Williams has eclipsed this market number in eight of his last 10 games. Since February 28, Williams is averaging 20.4 points per contest on a healthy 13.1 field goal attempts. Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddeyhave had a higher volume from the field during that stretch for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Tonight, Williams does not have the most favorable matchup in the world against a tough Los Angeles Clippers defense. However, the volume alone makes him a worthwhile risk for bettors in this spot. Assuming he sees double-digit field goal attempts on Thursday, he will have a great opportunity to hit the over here.
C.J. McCollum o4.5 rebounds (-115), DraftKings
During the month of March, C.J. McCollum is averaging 5.6 rebounds and 8.4 rebound chances per game. In that span, McCollum has eclipsed this market number in eight of his 10 games played, with only one game of fewer than four rebounds – indicating that he has been competitive at this number each time he has taken the floor in recent weeks. On Thursday, McCollum has a favorable matchup against a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 25th in rebound percentage and 27th in opponent rebounds per game since LaMelo Ball last played on February 27. Expect McCollum to be active on the glass once again this evening – take the over.
Wendell Carter Jr. o8.5 rebounds (-134), FanDuel
Since February 23, Wendell Carter Jr. has eclipsed this market number in 10 of 11 games, with his lone miss coming against the Phoenix Suns. Tonight, he has an ostensibly difficult matchup against the New York Knicks, which rank fourth in rebound percentage and have allowed the second-fewest opponent rebounds per game across their last 11 games. However, the potential absence of Mitchell Robinson makes this play particularly appealing. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks rank significantly worse in rebounding metrics when Robinson is off of the floor compared to when he is on the floor this year. This play is a little bit of a risk if Robinson ends up in uniform, but Carter Jr. should be competitive at this market number either way. Tread carefully, but there is the potential that this number closes at 9.5 across all sportsbooks.