Brandon Ingram over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists at Golden State (-108)
The Pelicans are "down bad", as the kids say, missing Jonas Valanciunas, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance, Josh Richardson and Zion Williamson. Admittedly, I'm buying high on Ingram here, as he's coming off a season-high 40 points against the Blazers, adding six rebounds and five assists. But he's been launching up shots lately, averaging 29.8 points on 23.7 attempts in the past six games, plus 5.2 boards and 3.0 dimes. He'll have to do more of everything Friday if the Pelicans want to be competitive.
Matisse Thybulle over 8.5 points at Atlanta (-118) This is not the same Thybulle that was buried on the bench in Philly. Thybulle is scoring 9.3 points over 30.3 minutes a game in six contests as a Trail Blazer. The O/U is a juicy 241.5 as Atlanta 117 points per contest, which ranks 22nd in the Association. Thybulle and Jerami Grant will probably alternate challenging John Collins, who has recently been slowed down by back problems. The former Sixer is feeling more and more comfortable with his new team – he's averaged 7.7 shots and 11.7 points over his past three games. For now, he's hot from three.
Nikola Jokic o12.5 rebounds (-130), DraftKings
According to props.cash, Nikola Jokic is only 13 for 29 to the over at this market number this season, but there are reasons to believe he can get there tonight. Since Steven Adams last played for the Memphis Grizzlies on January 22, the team ranks 27th in rebound percentage and 28th in opponent rebounds per game. Since February 15, Memphis has allowed 14 rebounds to Walker Kessler, 19 rebounds to Joel Embiid, and 13 rebounds to Jokic – the three true centers who they have faced during that time period. On February 25, Jokic had 13 rebounds on 20 rebound chances in only 27 minutes of action on the road in a blowout game script. On the season, Jokic is averaging 12.8 rebounds and 19.3 rebound chances per game at home, compared to 10.5 rebounds and 17.3 rebound chances per game on the road. In a favorable matchup this evening, on his home floor, Jokic should be able to get the job done here.
Lu Dort o17.5 points (-115), FanDuel
Call me a glutton for punishment, but we are back on the Lu Dort train again on Friday. Since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last played, Dort has attempted 17 shots, 17 shots, 14 shots, and 16 shots, respectively, from the field. In that span, he has scored at least 17 points in each of the three games in which he has played more than 21 minutes. According to props.cash, Dort has eclipsed this market number in 11 of his last 15 games played with Gilgeous-Alexander off of the floor, dating back to last season, with only one game of fewer than 15 points. The primary concern with Dort is his minutes, with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rotation being less reliable of late. However, this play makes too much sense from a mathematical perspective this evening, considering that Dort is averaging 22.4 points per 36 minutes of action this year when Gilgeous-Alexander is not on the court. Take the over on his points prop and live with the result.
Markelle Fultz o14.5 points (-125), PointsBet
Since February 1, Markelle Fultz is the leading scorer for the Orlando Magic, averaging 16.6 points on 12.8 field goal attempts in that span, on an efficient 53.2% from the floor. In seven road games during that stretch, Fultz has been even better, averaging 17.3 points on 58.6% shooting from the field, including a 21-point performance against the Milwaukee Bucks this past Wednesday. Tonight, Fultz gets a favorable matchup against a Charlotte Hornets team that ranks 30th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the restricted area, 14th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the paint, and 15th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the mid-range – the three areas of the floor where Fultz attacks most frequently on the offensive end. The volume is likely to be there tonight for Fultz, who has only one game with fewer than 12 shot attempts in the last 30 days. Trust him to knock down enough shots to hit the over in this spot.