3-Leg Same-Game Parlay: Cavaliers to win vs. Grizzlies + Darius Garland over 8.5 assists + Jarrett Allen over 10.5 rebounds (+403)
The Grizzlies are 1-4 since losing Steven Adams, and Jaren Jackson is doubtful to play Thursday. That leaves Memphis incredibly weak in the frontline. It wasn't easy to choose between Jarrett Allen's and Evan Mobley's rebound props, but I noticed that Allen grabs 1.2 more rebounds per game in victories, and Cleveland is favored. For what it's worth, Mobley grabs 0.2 fewer rebounds in wins. Then I decided to check whether Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell got a significant boost to either of their stats in wins. Mitchell averages 4.7 more points in wins, so I was initially going to lean in that direction, but I think Dillon Brooks will guard him most of the night. For as much flak as Brooks catches for inefficient shooting, he's on the court to take those bad shots because of his excellent defense. So, I'm going with the over on Garland's assists, since he averages 8.7 dimes in wins and 7.5 dimes in losses, and I assume he'll handle the ball more if Brooks is hounding Mitchell.
Jimmy Butler O21.5 points at New York Knicks
As far as star players go, Butler's scoring does tend to ebb and flow, but he's gone over this number in three straight games since returning from an illness. He's yet to face the Knicks this season, though Miami is catching New York at a good time. Entering Thursday, the Knicks hold a 121.8 defensive rating over their last 10 games – good for 28th in the NBA, ahead of only Portland and, of course, San Antonio. If there's a concern, it's that this may be a relatively low-scoring game, as both teams rank in the bottom five in pace over the last 10, with New York ranking dead last.