Paul George over 2.5 threes (-135) at Chicago Bulls
Chicago's defense has been better across the past month, ranking sixth since Jan. 1. However, one area of weakness is that they're still allowing a ton of threes. During this stretch, Chicago is allowing the fifth-most non-corner threes -- an area that Paul George loves. He takes 35% of his shots from there -- in the 65th percentile for wings -- and over the past five games, he's averaging 24.4 points in 34.8 minutes while making 2.8 threes at 43.8 percent.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets U231.0 points The Pelicans are, as the youths say, "down bad" right now, having lost nine of their last 10 games. During that span, they've been the worst offense in the league and have the worst NET rating among teams not actively trying to lose basketball games. The Pels have also gone eight straight games without scoring more than 110 points – a pretty rare feat in the year of our lord 2023. At some point, Brandon Ingram will help remedy this offense, but tonight will mark only his third game back from an extended absence. Going up against a Denver team that ranks 24th in pace and 7th in defense, I don't trust the Pels to hold up their end of the bargain and push this game over 231.0. Anthony Davis O21.5 points at New York Knicks As always, make sure Davis actually plays in this game before locking in the bet, but I fully expect him to go after sitting out Monday night alongside LeBron James. Davis saw 34 minutes of action against Boston over the weekend, so he appears to be cleared for a full workload, and he could be back in the starting five tonight. Either way, if Davis sees 30-to-35 minutes, he should have no issue getting to 22 points against what's been a bottom-five defense over the last 10 games. Prior to his \injury, Davis had cleared 21.5 points – typically with ease -- in 21 of 23 healthy contests.
Jonas Valanciunas under 9.5 rebounds (-120) at Denver Nuggets The Pelicans face the mighty Nuggets tonight, which means it's time again for Nikola Jokic to expose Valanciunas' slow defense. In two prior games this season against Denver, JV saw only 18 and 14 minutes of run. That 18-minute game was a week ago, with Zion Williamson out due to his hamstring injury. The fact is, a healthy Larry Nance plays better defense on Jokic. Nance played 22 minutes in last week's close home loss to Denver. Valanciunas is averaging 9.6 boards per game this season. A small dip due to less playing time seems reasonable. I'm a pedestrian 15-12 this season on unders, so feel free to fade!