NBA Player Props – Nuggets vs. Lakers, May 20, 2023
Jamal Murray o24.5 points
Anthony Davis o13.5 rebounds
LeBron James less than 20.5 field goal attempts
Jamal Murray o24.5 points (-114), FanDuel
Jamal Murray has hit the over on his point prop in each of the first two games of this series, and we see little reason not to run things back for the third consecutive game on Saturday. In Game 1, Murray scored 31 points and had a healthy 20 shot attempts from the field. In Game 2, Murray got off to a slow start but finished with 37 points – taking 24 shot attempts and playing 43 minutes. Heading into Game 3, it is clear that Murray is a clear focal point within the Denver offense. Even accounting for his negative splits on the road, this market number is too low – take the over once again.
Anthony Davis o13.5 rebounds (+102), FanDuel
We successfully targeted this prop in Game 2 and we are running it back again for Game 3. In the series opener, Anthony Davis had only 10 rebounds, but he led the Los Angeles Lakers in rebound chances, proving that he owns the main responsibility on the glass for his team in this matchup. In Game 2, Davis had 14 rebounds and 26 rebound chances. According to props.cash, Davis has eclipsed this market number in five of his seven home games during these playoffs, with only one game of fewer than 13 boards. Expect him to be active on the glass this evening.
NBA DFS Pick’em
LeBron James less than 20.5 field goal attempts, PrizePicks
PrizePicks simply refuses to adjust this market number. We have recommended this play in each of the first two games of this series – LeBron James has attempted 16 and 19 field goal attempts, respectively. In the first round, we recommended this play six times against the Memphis Grizzlies – James attempted 20 field goals or less in five of those games. In the second round, we advised that this play was a good risk six times – James attempted 18 field goals or less four times. Going back even further, James has attempted 21 field goals or less in 16 of his last 20 playoff contests since the 2020-2021 campaign. Keep running this back until James forces us to retreat (which is unlikely).