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Best Nuggets-Heat NBA Finals Game 4

Best Nuggets-Heat Picks (Single game parlay tab)

(2+) Steals Jimmy Butler (10+) Points Michael Porter Jr. (1+) 3-Pointer Kevin Love

The Miami Heat need a win to avoid falling into a two-game deficit. Fortunately, they’ll have home-court advantage; unfortunately, home-court advantage hasn’t meant much for them this season. Still, we’re siding with the Heat and Jimmy Butler in a pivotal spot tonight.

Jimmy Butler 2+ Steals

The key to this parlay? Buy the dip. After averaging 2.1 steals per game in the postseason before this series got underway, Butler has one steal through three games. The deflections and defensive intensity haven’t gone away, and neither have the turnovers created — Butler just isn’t getting to the loose balls. With the underlying metrics and volume still there, trust Butler to bounce back. This prop would’ve cost you -150 (60%) for Game 3, but it’s +100 (50%) now.

Yeah, yeah. I know Michael Porter Jr. didn’t come close to delivering for us in Game 3. In his defense, the Nuggets didn’t need him — they built a solid early lead and were getting enough out of Christian Braun to leave MPJ on the bench. However, MPJ reached double-digit scoring in 56 of his 62 (90.3%) regular-season appearances this year. He has reached double figures in 14 of his 18 (77.8%) of his playoff starts, too. Yet we’re getting this prop at -150 (60%)? Bet.

Kevin Love 1+ 3-Pointer

We correctly targeted Kevin Love in Game 3. After re-entering the rotation in Game 2 and shooting 2-for-6 from the perimeter, he returned to the mix and shot 2-for-5 from the perimeter in Game 3. We’ll stick with him here. Love has now seen the floor in 18 of Miami’s playoff games and has made at least one 3-pointer in 13, good for a 72.2% hit rate. He also recorded at least one 3-pointer in 17 of his 21 regular-season appearances for Miami, good for an 80.9% hit rate. With Tyler Herro still out, Love is a key part of Miami’s offense.

You could swap this out for the moneyline, but late-game foul shenanigans could get the Nuggets narrowly past the Heat tonight. Miami is an elite 14-7 against the spread in the postseason. They have not failed to cover the spread in consecutive games as an underdog since the playoffs began, and with a two-game deficit on the line, I don’t expect that trend to bust here.

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