Connecticut +10.5 at Army
I try not to go against a team that bit me the week prior, and I can't believe I feel so confident in the Huskies, but here we are. UConn has won three straight and five of six, showing a decent run defense in the process, allowing 136.7 ypg and six scores. They run it well themselves, ranking 35th, and will be facing Army's 118th-ranked run defense that's allowing 5.1 ypc. Army has beaten UL Monroe, Colgate, and Villanova. What exactly have they done to be more than 10-point favorites? Their last two games have seen a combined 39 total points. This will move fast, and getting more than a score feels solid.
Appalachian State -15.5 vs. Old Dominion
The Mountaineers have lost two straight and are just 6-5 on the season. But they score points, averaging 34.4 per game, ranking 26th. Old Dominion, on the other hand, doesn't, ranking 114th by posting 20.0 ppg. They've lost four straight, scoring three total points in their last two. Appalachian State is also 5-1 at home, covering at the same rate. I expect them to take out some frustration on the fading Monarchs and win with ease.
Georgia (-22.5) at Kentucky
Lines haven't been set high enough to steer me away from the Bulldogs yet again this week. With another cover on the road last week, they are 8-2 ATS on the year, failing to better the spread against just Missouri and Florida, the second of which came up one-point short. We know how salty this defense is, ranking second in points allowed, third against the run and 20th against the pass. Kentucky is decent defensively, so Georgia may need some time to stretch this, and I certainly don't hate buying this down to 20.5, but UK is just 2-4 in-conference and coming off a loss to Vanderbilt. I think they've mailed it in. Look for UGA to create turnovers with QB Will Levisstruggling of late, setting up short fields and plenty of scoring.
Clemson -19 vs. Miami
So long as this stays under three touchdowns, I feel pretty safe. Miami got their offense going last week at Georgia Tech, but that gameplay won't work here. Jacurri Brown isn't a capable downfield passer, and Clemson will key on his mobility and force him to throw. Should Tyler Van Dyke get the start, it's questionable how healthy he is, and Miami hasn't been able to run the ball with him under center. The Hurricane's offensive line is in shambles as well. You can beat Clemson by running the ball and forcing turnovers, see Notre Dame. Miami might be able to do the latter, but not the former. Clemson rolls to their 40th straight home win.
Auburn -5.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Perhaps the Hilltoppers get their passing attack going and Auburn can't keep up. But the Tigers' pass defense is sound, allowing 6.3 ypa and just 10 TD passes all year. WKU can't run, and I trust Auburn to not need many to stuff that portion of their offense. They'll dominate the line, create pressures, and interceptions and stifle the one-dimensional offense that's coming to the Plains. Even as a down team with no coach, Auburn is just a massive step up in class for a WKU side that's the "best" opponent to date in Indiana.
Wisconsin (-12.5) at Nebraska
After showing some life in the post-Frost era, the Cornhuskers are back to getting stomped on a weekly basis. Nebraska is allowing nearly 30 points per game while surrendering almost 200 yards per game on the ground. Enter Wisconsin, which is fully equipped to take advantage of the 'Huskers inability to stop anyone on the ground. The Badgers struggled to get their ground game going this past week against Iowa, but that's understandable. After working on the ground game all week, you can bet that the Badgers will commit to running all day. With no way of slowing the Badgers down, Nebraska will have a hard time staying within reaching distance.
Over (68.5) East Carolina vs Houston
Houston has been the ultimate over team this season. The Cougars are scoring 37 ppg while allowing 36ppg. East Carolina's numbers aren't quite as gaudy, but that might have more to do with its competition as the Pirates have faced some solid defenses already this season. They won't be facing a solid defense this week, however, which is great news because they have the offense to turn this game into a shootout. Houston has been involved in some doozies this year already and while I don't expect 140 points to be scored in this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see 80+.
Over (52.5) Auburn vs Western Kentucky
This is one of those tricky non-conference games where you aren't quite sure how it will play out because these teams play in completely different environments on a weekly basis. Western Kentucky is extremely proficient on offense, but is that largely due to its competition? I think it's partially due to the competition, but I do believe that the Hilltoppers can move the ball on Auburn. Perhaps if the Tigers had a stout defense, I could envision them shutting down this high-powered offense, but Auburn has been caught up in several shootouts this season. After last week's 13-10 slugfest against Texas A&M, I can see a letup on defense and maybe an offense that can spread its wings.
Mississippi (-2.5) at Arkansas
Tough loss for the Rebels this past week as they had Alabama right where they wanted them but couldn't hang on. Arkansas is also coming off a tough loss where they played LSU tough for 60 minutes but couldn't find a way to get on top. The difference this week though is that Arkansas won't be getting a team coming off a big win like the 'Hogs did this past week with LSU, they'll be getting a team hungry to get back into the win column. The other issue for Arkansas this week is that it doesn't have a strong defense and the only way to beat Mississippi is to slow its rushing attack. Expect the Rebels to get back on track this week with a hard-fought road win.