Southeast Louisiana Lions at Incarnate Word Cardinals
After a tough 1-4 start in Southland play, SELA has gone 8-3 down the stretch, including an impressive win over first-place McNeese. In conference, the Lions have stumbled only once against teams outside the KenPom top-300, and that loss was without two starters. In the other six games against such teams, SELA is 6-0 and winning by over 11 ppg on average. Incarnate is on a five-game slide and potentially without three starters tonight. With a valuable top-4 conference finish to play for, I see SELA coming out hot tonight.
College Basketball Best Bet: Southeastern Louisiana -3.5 (@ FanDuel)
Nicholls Colonels at Northwestern State Demons
Nicholls is another Southland team playing for a top-4 finish and is another team that has dominated the lower half of the conference. The Colonels are 9-0 against Southland teams outside the KenPom top-300 with an average winning margin of just over 7.5 ppg. Along those same lines, NW State has yet to record a win against any of the upper-division teams, including a 7-point loss at Nicholls in early-February. Further illustrating these points is Nicholls' 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS run as favorites and NW State's 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS slide as underdogs. The Demons will likely keep this close, but at this short number, I see value on the motivated Colonels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nicholls -1.5 (@ PointsBet)
Northern Colorado Bears at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Recommending three road favorites is not usually a recipe for success, but in the smaller conferences, talent tends to travel and win out over home court. Here, in a three-way tie for second, NorCol is highly motivated to get a win and the Big Sky's second seed. Keeping with the similar thought process above, the Bears have yet to lose to any of the conference's teams outside the KenPom top-300 including a 15-point win over the Lumberjacks to open Big Sky play Dec 30. The Jacks are a capable underdog with a home win over Big Sky champ Eastern Washington, but the Bears have been excellent road warriors all year.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northern Colorado -3.5 (@ FanDuel)
Monday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Monday, March 4:
Southeastern Louisiana -3.5 (@ FanDuel)
Nicholls -1.5 (@ PointsBet)
Northern Colorado -3.5 (@ FanDuel)