Florida (-10.5) vs. Missouri
Missouri took their shot last week against Georgia. Perhaps they are improving, and if they show that in The Swamp, it should create a buying opportunity later in the year. But the most likely outcome is they come up incredibly flat on the road here. You have to assume their showing against the Bulldogs has gotten the Gators' attention. Florida can't afford another conference loss either, further suggesting a valiant effort.
Tennessee (-3) at LSU
This line has moved down slightly from the (-4) I believe I saw Sunday afternoon, but I'm going against the grain and trusting the Vols. It'll be strength vs. strength, weakness vs. weakness when UT's O squares with LSU's D, and vice versa. As such, I think LSU will get their points despite uncertainty at quarterback. But I think the certainty for Tennessee with Hendon Hooker is the difference. The noon kickoff, 11:00 am EDT, will keep this crowd at least somewhat in check, further aiding the Vols' quest for a road win.
Pittsburgh (-14.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Get in early, as I could see this creeping up towards 17 before kickoff. The line seems deflated thanks to Pitt's inexplicable loss to Georgia Tech last week. On one side, you can say the Jackets were inspired by a new voice following Geoff Collins' firing. On the other side, Pitt likely took the game for granted. That allows us a buying opportunity. Pitt honestly isn't very good, especially offensively, and they could be down star RB Israel Abanikanda. But I don't think it matters. Virginia Tech has been exposed over the last two weeks by West Virginia and North Carolina, the former of which Pitt beat. Last week's loss doesn't afford Pitt the chance to be lazy here, and they are simply superior on both sides.
Kentucky (-6) vs. South Carolina
The Wildcats covered for me/us last week, but absolutely should have won outright at Ole Miss, as kicking woes and untimely mistakes did them in. They were vulnerable to the Rebels' vaunted rushing attack, but ultimately surrendered only 22 points. Plenty of their goals are ahead of them despite the defeat, which keeps them focused against an overmatched South Carolina side. The Gamecocks rank 106th against the run, with only lowly Charlotte and South Carolina State failing to get 200+ yards against them. Chris Rodriguez's return sparked Kentucky last week, and he'll smash here. The line has come down some four points too, which seems odd. Or like a gift.
North Carolina State (-3) vs. Florida State
I'm not buying Florida State is "back", or resurgence, or however you want to define their first four wins. They are the fourth-best team in this division, at a maximum, and they are about to regress to that mean. Yes, this could be a classic spot where NCST's loss to Clemson last week beats them twice, and you could argue both teams need this game, as the 'Noles have Clemson next and could be looking at a three-game losing streak. The 'Pack have the better defense by a long shot, and if FSU scored only 21 on Wake, do they get close to that here? Raleigh will be rocking, and the Wolfpack protect their turf.