Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel: $11,400, PG DraftKings: $12,600, PG/SF Yahoo: $58, PG FantasyDraft: $22,500, G
This price tag on FD for Luka continues to remain just too cheap. So he ‘only’ got 46.8 FD points in their last game against the Nuggets…whoop-de-do (I had to look up exactly how to spell that).
Consider for a moment that this is a guy who has gotten 1.65 FD points per minute this season (which just so happens to be the second highest per-minute rate in the league behind Giannis). Then, think about the fact that the per-minute rate skyrockets up to 1.82 in his 408 minutes on the court without Porzingis. As you can see, the usage rate of course goes up a little, but he also shoulders an even bigger rebounding load.
Additionally, a small thing I have noticed in these games without Porzingis is that Carlisle is running him out there for more minutes. In the six games without Porzingis this season, Luka is averaging 36.3 minutes per game (and 59 FD points). In the 27 games with Porzingis, he is averaging 32.2 minutes per game (and 53 FD points). We have seen those minutes tick up to the 37-38 range in the really competitive games, like Wednesday versus Denver.
We should expect more of the same with the Mavs at home tonight against LeBron and the Lakers. You do the math. 36-38 minutes multiplied by even his season FPPM rate makes this price tag too cheap. AND Porzingis is out again tonight? Yes please.
(Tournament pivot: What the Projected Ownership is on Trae Young tonight over on FD might be one of the things I am most interested in. The guy is coming off of a 72.6 FD point performance and now gets to face the Wizards. While $10,000 is a big price tag, he has proven on more occasions than just Wednesday night that he can smash it for you. The fact of the matter is that Luka is still a better play for the dollar, even when factoring in the matchups. So will DFS owners chase that Wednesday game from Trae and back off of Luka based on what he did on Wednesday? Or will they by and large trust what the projections say and roll with Luka at heavier ownership? With the field sharpening by the day, my lean is the latter. So if you see a big gap in ownership, I’d be rolling with Trae as the tournament pivot.)
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
FanDuel: $10,000, PG DraftKings: $10,400, PG Yahoo: $47, PG FantasyDraft: $18,300, G
Before talking about Trae, let me first talk about some other high-priced guys on this slate.
Luka Doncic, $12,600: I love Luka tonight for reasons already mentioned, but there is no arguing $12,600 is a hefty price tag on DK. If some news breaks our way, we can absolutely consider him in cash games as the spend-up. But we have a ways to go before we get to that point.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, $11,100: Still in consideration for me, but there is always that uncertainty with his minutes based on how often the Bucks blow out other teams.
Kawhi Leonard, $9,900: I have the most interest here since Paul George is out, but we have major concerns with the minutes considering the Clips are -13 at home versus the Warriors. What happened in the Clips game on January 2nd, for example, is my real concern here. Their bench is good enough to extend leads to the point that Kawhi didn’t even get to see his fourth quarter rotation. That resulted in only 24.5 minutes. But if you slot him in for his mid-to-high 30’s minutes he gets in competitive games, he is going to look like one of the best plays on the slate. Sigh.
Which brings me to Trae Young. Let’s see, highest totaled game on the slate, two of the worst defenses in the league, and two of the fastest-paced (there is no way that is proper grammar) teams in the league. Anyone curious what Trae’s last 10 games look like in terms of DK points?
50.5 61 50.75 67 63.5 14 (left that game real early with the ankle injury) 50.25 62.5 52 80.25
How is that for a floor!? I think I am going to get through this blurb without actually mentioning the phrases usage rate or assist rate (starting….NOW). Am I the only one who just feels extremely comfortable paying for him over all of those other guys I mentioned? The range of outcomes just seems much narrower.
So that is my lean for now. There are so many ways this slate can go though based on the injury news, don’t be surprised at all if he isn’t tagged in LineupHQ later in the day. Regardless, no matter how the news ultimately shakes out, you should feel comfortable rostering him tonight in cash games if it comes down to it.
(Tournament pivot: Any of those guys I listed above! Play the ownership game. Correlate your lineups. My favorite would probably be Kawhi Leonardsince he is the cheapest of the bunch. Against the Warriors, he might be able to get you 60 DK points without even breaking a sweat. Which is a good thing, because if he does break a sweat, he might short-circuit.)