The goal of this weekly DFS tournament picks article is to identify at least one player each week who is in the winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineup at less than 15% ownership. We had two monster hits last week with DeVante Parker and Wayne Gallman, who combined for 40.1 DraftKings points at a $10,900 salary — which is right on the 200-point pace we are chasing.
With that, we are on to the DFS tournament picks for Week 13.
Head coach Doug Pederson should be criminally investigated for giving Miles Sanders only six carries against the Seahawks last week. But alas, we have dealt with Sanders' inexplicable usage all season. That is precisely what makes him a fantastic DFS tournament play in Week 13 with arguably the greatest running back matchup in all of fantasy football.
Check out the following box scores that the Green Bay Packers have allowed to running backs:
David Montgomery: 11-103 rushing, 5-40-1 receiving / 28.3 DraftKings points
Jonathan Taylor: 22-90 / 15.4
James Robinson: 23-109 / 16.2
Jerick McKinnon: 12-52-1 / 15.8
Dalvin Cook: 30-163-3, 2-63-1 / 51.6
David Johnson: 14-42, 4-42-1 / 17.4
Ronald Jones: 23-113-2 / 29.1
Todd Gurley II: 15-57-2 / 19.3
Alvin Kamara: 6-58, 13-139-2 / 47.7
Dalvin Cook: 12-50-2 / 21.8
The Packers have allowed an average of 26.3 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. If you remove Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, they have allowed 20.2 fantasy points per game.
With Carson Wentz struggling mightily and the Eagles desperate for a win to keep pace in the NFC East, it makes all the sense in the world for Pederson to focus on a run-heavy game plan against the Packers. Even with Sanders splitting work with Boston Scott, it is not hard to envision a scenario with 20-plus touches for the second-year running back in this matchup.
Sanders is no bargain at $6,700 on DraftKings, but he is likely to be under 5% owned considering the negative recency bias associated with his usage.
This is a major upside play while trying to ignore the potential downsides. Perhaps Sanders picks up a few chunk gains early and the Eagles decide to ride the hot hand for the rest of the game. In that universe, Sanders has legitimate 30-point, slate-breaking upside. Remember, we are trying to win a DFS tournament; upside should be our primary focus.
Jarvis Landry is coming off a smash game after shredding the Jaguars for an 8-143-1 receiving line and 31.3 DraftKings points. Accordingly, DraftKings jacked up his price from $5,200 to $6,200. Landry is likely to be underowned for two reasons:
It feels point-chasey to use a player who popped out of nowhere for a 30-point game. People think that because they missed out on the score last week, there is no need to chase after it.
There is major sticker shock when a player sees a massive increase in price. Landry cost $5,200 last week, but nobody played him. It feels wrong to then jump on at a significantly more expensive salary.
However, the exact scenario that made Landry a strong play last week is once again a factor this week. If you don't read my weekly passing report, you are missing out on valuable receiving usage data with DFS analysis for every slate. In this week's edition, I explain why I recommended Landry as a strong DFS play in Week 12.
Last week, Landry had 11 targets for a 41% target share with 121 air yards and a 50% air-yard share. That is true alpha wide receiver usage. He has zero real competition for targets on this offense. That type of WR1 role is what makes players like Davante Adams and Keenan Allen so valuable in fantasy football. I am not saying Landry is the same player as Adams or Allen, but their roles are not too far off (granted, the Browns are much more of a run-first offense).
Oct 4, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) and quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) and center JC Tretter (64) celebrate a touchdown in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Titans' defense has been burned by receivers from both the slot and the outside this season. Conveniently, Landry has lined up in the slot and wide at roughly a 50% even split all season. The Titans have allowed 100 completions and 1,137 receiving yards from the slot, both second-most in the NFL. They have surrendered 115 completions (fifth-most) and nine touchdowns (eighth) to outside receivers.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both projected for sub-10% ownership right now, but I imagine those numbers are much higher by the weekend. Accordingly, Landry should be great leverage on every roster that uses Chubb or Hunt.
Browns versus Titans has the highest total on this slate, at 53.5. So there is definite potential here for both offenses to march up and down the field all game long.
Josh Reynolds is a long-time favorite of yours truly. The last time I recommended him as a DFS tournament play, he hit the Seahawks in Week 10 for an 8-94 receiving line and 17.4 DraftKings points while priced at just $3,500 — he was in the Milly Maker-winning lineup.
This week presents the exact same scenario that led to Reynolds being such a strong play in Week 10 — a high-total game where we can project the Rams to pass (total is currently at 48.5 and rising). Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are both projecting to be chalk and significantly more expensive than Reynolds.
Accordingly, every fantasy point that Reynolds scores will take away from two of the most popular plays on the entire slate. Paying down for Reynolds allows you to fit in an extra expensive running back or wide receiver that you would otherwise not be able to afford, which could be a huge differentiator for your roster.
Reynolds ran a route on 100% of the Rams' pass plays last week and had a 20% target share with a 26% air-yard share. He has a real role in this offense (check out my passing report for the full Rams target breakdown).
In scrolling through ownership projections, I was floored to see DeAndre Hopkins hovering at 5%. He is going to get the shadow treatment from Jalen Ramsey, so get your popcorn ready. These two are going to be battling all game long. Back in 2018, Hopkins toasted Ramsey’s Jaguars for a 12-147 receiving line.
Correlating Reynolds with Hopkins will be extremely unique and allow you to fill out your roster with some of the more popular plays. You can also absolutely use Reynolds as a solo one-off piece because he is so cheap. You only need him to get 16 fantasy points to stay on a 200-point pace.
DeVante Parker worked out swimmingly for us last week with his 8-119 receiving line and 22.9 DraftKings points, and I would like to go right back to the well in Week 13.
I think people are starting to catch on to the fact that Parker currently has the same alpha role in this Dolphins offense that created a top-five fantasy wide receiver down the stretch of 2019. Parker was a $7,000 WR on DraftKings toward the end of last season, but we can get a discount on that price at $6,400 this week.
Check out Parker’s receiving usage from the past four weeks since Preston Williams got hurt:
Week 12: 35% target share, 50% air-yard share
Week 11: 22% target share, 27% air-yard share
Week 10: 29% target share, 36% air-yard share
Week 9: 28% target share, 30% air-yard share
That is extremely consistent alpha usage, and he has seen at least seven targets in every game, including a combined 21 targets over the past two games with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Assuming Fitzpatrick is the starting quarterback in Week 13, Parker is in another smash spot with a juicy matchup against a woeful Bengals secondary.
The Bengals' defense has been torched by outside receivers this season:
1,467 yards (seventh-most)
7 yards per attempt (fourth)
12 TDs (second)
DeVante Parker is likely to be the most popular player of the four we detailed in this article, but I am not worried about ownership on a player with such a locked-in alpha receiving role.
PFF rates Parker with one of the highest-rated WR/CB matchups this week.