top of page

DraftKings NFL: Week 4 Breakdown

Sunday's Week 4 slate features 12 games, and as has been the case this season, one stands out when looking at the implied totals. The Dolphins-Bills matchup should make for fantastic viewing, but it's a tricky spot for DFS, especially as this slate offers plenty of other appealing options. I can't remember a week with as many good WR options in each price range. It makes things interesting for tournaments where I don't expect to see the same amount of massive chalk as in weeks past. It's nice because with so many viable options, you don't have to do anything crazy to find leverage. Good Luck.

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

  • RB Kyren Williams at IND ($6,000)

Part of the reason Williams projects so well is because he's been on the field for nearly 100 percent of snaps. No other Rams RB had a touch last week. It's also encouraging to see him so involved in the passing-game. He's caught eight of 17 targets the last two weeks. The other reason he projects well is his favorable matchup against the Colts, who play fast. They rank first in neutral-pace and combined snaps, which make their games appealing to target for DFS. Williams is a no-brainer in cash games this week.


  • WR Keenan Allen vs. LV ($7,900)

Allen seems like a pretty easy for cash games too. He actually projects for more raw points than Justin Jefferson ($9,600) and Tyreek Hill ($9,200), which is saying quite a bit considering the salary difference. Injuries to Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are a big reason for that. Allen is coming off a wild stat line from last week when he caught 18 of 20 targets for 215 yards while also throwing for a long TD. If you're looking for some cheaper value at the position, consider his teammate Joshua Palmer ($4,000), who, along with Quentin Johnston ($3,700), will be expected to fill the void left by Williams. If you don't trust either Charger, Adam Thielen ($4,500) gets a favorable matchup against his former team.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Anthony Richardson vs. LAR ($6,700)

QB Justin Fields vs. DEN ($6,600)

QB Russell Wilson at CHI ($5,800)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo at LAC ($5,300)

QB Kenny Pickett at HOU ($5,100)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. ARI ($9,200)

RB Tony Pollard vs. NE ($7,800)

RB Kyren Williams at IND ($6,000)

RB Alexander Mattison at CAR ($5,800)

RB Miles Sanders vs. MIN ($5,800)

RB Javonte Williams at CHI ($5,500)

WR Davante Adams at LAC ($8,000)

WR Keenan Allen vs. LV ($7,900)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at TEN ($7,800)

WR Deebo Samuel vs. ARI ($6,900)

WR Puka Nacua at IND ($6,700)

WR Jakobi Meyers at LAC ($5,500)

WR Tank Dell vs. PIT ($4,600)

WR Adam Thielen vs. MIN ($4,500)

WR Joshua Palmer vs. LV ($4,000)

WR Calvin Austin vs. HOU ($3,300)

TE George Kittle vs. ARI ($5,100)

TE Pat Freiermuth at HOU ($3,400)

TE Zach Ertz at SF ($3,200)

D/ST Indianapolis Colts vs. LAR ($2,900)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. BAL ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Miami Dolphins (25.25) at Buffalo Bills (28.25)

DOLPHINS

Miami-Buffalo stands out, not only as the marquee matchup of the season so far but also for its 53.5-point total, highest of the 12 games by nearly a touchdown. The Dolphins' offense looks unstoppable after last week's 70-point outburst against the Broncos. This will be a much stiffer test against one of the league's best defenses. That combined with the price tag on Tyreek Hill($9,200) and the return of Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) will deter enough people from stacking them. Raheem Mostert ($6,500) and De'Von Achane ($5,700) combined for seven TDs and 100 fantasy points last week and won't be popular either. There are plenty of leverage opportunities if this game is a shootout. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400) and this offense has been so impressive. Can they do it in Buffalo? It's hard to recommend rostering a QB on the road against the Bills, but it makes sense in GPPs if you think the Dolphins keep rolling.

BILLS

From a fantasy perspective, it's been a slow start for Josh Allen ($8,200). Through three games, he's yet to throw for 300 yards and hasn't topped 24 DK points. That along with him being the most expensive QB on the slate that has multiple value options in the mid-range will keep his popularity down. His numbers are down because the Bills haven't been pushed, but that figures to change Sunday. His rushing upside gives him a ceiling on par with Jalen Hurts. Stefon Diggs($8,100) won't be overly popular either as he will be overshadowed by some of the WRs priced above and below him. Almost no one will roster Gabe Davis ($5,900), but we've seen him smash that price tag many times the last couple seasons. Dalton Kincaid ($3,200) is still waiting to break out and probably gets squeezed some by Freiermuth and the other cheap TEs. James Cook($6,300) averages more than six yards per carry and continues to be involved in the passing game. Pairing him with Allen would be another way to get some leverage. It all adds up to the Bills being one of my favorite stacks on the slate.

  • Favorite Dolphins Stack: QB Tagovailoa + RB Cook + WR Hill and/or WR Waddle

  • Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs or WR Davis + WR Waddle + TE Kincaid

Las Vegas Raiders (22) at Los Angeles Chargers (27.5)

RAIDERS

Las Vegas hasn't been able to run the ball and have a very tight WR core in that almost all of the targets have gone to Davante Adams ($8,000) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,500). It makes them appealing for game stacks, especially when they're likely to play from behind. Adams is coming off a massive game in which he drew 20 targets, catching 13 for 172 yards and two scores. Meyers has drawn double-digit targets in both his starts and has 17 catches and two TDs to show for it. They both project well point-per-dollar and should be relatively popular as result. Pairing one or both with Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300) would make sense to gain leverage and correlation while saving some salary.

CHARGERS

Assuming Austin Ekeler ($8,500) remains out, the Chargers' core got even tighter with the news that Mike Williams tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. It means that Keenan Allen($7,900) will continue to be the focal point for Justin Herbert ($7,800) and the offense. It's a role that Allen still excels in and he demonstrated it last week with a whopping 18 catches for 215 yards. If that wasn't enough, he also threw for a TD on his way to 48-plus fantasy points. The Chargers will hope that Joshua Palmer ($4,000) and Quentin Johnston ($3,700) can help replace Williams. Either is cheap enough and has enough upside to include in stacks. Palmer probably sees more volume while Johnston brings the big-play ability. The TEs will have to step up too. Keep an eye on the status of Gerald Everett ($3,600), who's currently listed as questionable with an illness. If he were to miss, Donald Parham ($2,800) would become very popular after catching two TDs last week against the Vikings.

  • Favorite Raiders Stack: QB Garoppolo + WR Adams + WR Allen +/- WR Meyers

  • Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + WR Adams + WR Allen + WR Johnston or WR Palmer

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Adam Thielen or WR D.J. Chark

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + RB Derick Henry or TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

High-Priced Heroes

  • QB Josh Allen vs. MIA ($8,200)

People will be more comfortable spending down at QB this week because there are good options in the mid-range and even cheaper. There's also a need for salary at WR, which means that rostering an expensive QB will be a little more contrarian than usual. I mentioned above how it's been a relatively slow start for Allen but that the Bills haven't been pushed yet. If that happens against the Dolphins, he has 40-point upside. I have plenty of interest in Justin Herbert ($7,800)as well. He'll be even less popular than Allen as we've never seen him priced this high. It's a great matchup for the Chargers and you'd assume Herbert will be forced to air it out again if Austin Ekeler remains out.

  • WR Ja'Marr Chase at TEN ($7,800)

Chase just makes so much sense in tournaments when you consider that Davante Adams($8,000) and Keenan Allen ($7,900) will be twice as popular. You're not forcing it either as he should have an ideal matchup against the Titans and their notorious pass-funnel defense. Chase is coming off 12 catches for 141 yards on Monday night. It's been a slow start for the Bengals' offense with Joe Burrow banged up, but it's a good sign that practiced fully this week. Assuming good health, it's only a matter of time before their passing game hits the heights we got used to seeing last season.

  • Honorable Mentions: WR Stefon Diggs; RB Tony Pollard ($7,800); WR A.J. Brown ($7,700);

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

  • WR Tyreek Hill at BUF ($9,200)

Fading Hill on this slate is about price, matchup and opportunity cost. The Dolphins have the most explosive offense in football but haven't really been tested yet. Hill feasted on a couple of Swiss cheese pass defenses in the Broncos and Chargers. Playing in Buffalo is a different animal. I'm not saying he can't do it, but the return of Jaylen Waddle makes it even less likely, in my opinion. Add to that he costs $9,200 on a slate that features the likes of Diggs, Adams, Allen, Chase and Brown for more than $1,000 cheaper. I'm willing to sacrifice my exposure to Hill to afford more of the WRs who have similar ceilings and are priced around $8K.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

  • TE George Kittle vs. ARI ($5,100)

Highlighting Kittle was the result of a few factors. First, the Cardinals defense has been notably bad at stopping opposing TEs the last couple seasons. Second, he's cheaper than usual, and rightly so considering 49ers have more weapons eating up usage. But Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are listed as questionable. We just saw Kittle catch seven balls for 90 yards with Ayiuk out last Thursday. It's good spot for him even if both WRs pla,y but if one misses, he has upside for 100-plus yards and multiple scores.

Honorable Mentions: WR Quentin Johnston ($3,700); WR Joshua Palmer ($4,000)

The Bargain Bin

QB Brock Purdy vs. ARI ($5,900)

QB Russell Wilson at CHI ($5,800)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo at LAC ($5,300)

QB Kenny Pickett at HOU ($5,100)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. WAS ($5,700)

RB Javonte Williams at CHI ($5,500)

RB Jerome Ford vs. BAL ($5,400)

WR Elijah Moore vs. BAL ($4,700)

WR Tank Dell vs. PIT ($4,600)

WR Adam Thielen vs. MIN ($4,500)

WR Joshua Palmer vs. LV ($4,000)

WR Quentin Johnston vs. LV ($3,700)

WR Calvin Austin vs. HOU ($3,300)

TE Pat Freiermuth at HOU ($3,400)

TE Zach Ertz at SF ($3,200)

TE Dalton Kincaid vs. MIA ($3,200)

TE Dawson Knox vs. MIA ($3,100)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. CIN ($3,100)

Injuries to Monitor

  • RB Austin Ekeler vs. LV

I've already mentioned a few times the implications of Ekeler being out. If he ends up playing, I can't see myself spending $8,500 when it would mean one less $8K WR. I'd still have plenty of interest in Herbert and the WRs, regardless.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo at LAC

Garappolo is still in concussion protocol. I wrote this article as if he were playing. If he ends up being out, I will most likely fade Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers as there's too much opportunity to risk backing Brian Hoyer.



12 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page