We're halfway through May and starting a new week on Monday. Mondays also bring new series in MLB. There are 11 MLB games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later, and those are the games I'm tackling today. Time for the recommendations!
Luis Severino, NYY at BAL ($8,100): The last few starts for Severino have been iffy, but he still has a 3.81 FIP. He's also struck out 9.73 batter per nine innings, which is low for him. The Orioles are down in the bottom five in runs scored, as expected, so hopefully Severino can get back on track.
Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. ARI ($): Gonsolin loves pitching at Dodgers Stadium. Since 2020, he has a 2.00 ERA at home. Even though the Diamondbacks have a hitter-friendly ballpark, they are in the bottom 10 in runs scored. And, again, they are on the road for this one.
Chris Archer, MIN at OAK ($6,800): Archer hasn't gone more than 4.1 innings, which has kept him from being eligible for a win, but this matchup still has a lot going for it. Oakland has a nice ballpark in which to pitch, for starters. Second, the Athletics have the league's lowest team OPS. They aren't even sniffing .600 as an OPS right now.
Top Targets Though Anthony Rizzo ($3,800) has seen his batting average sink, he still has a .340 OBP and a .508 slugging percentage with nine homers and three stolen bases. That includes a .933 OPS against righties. Kyle Bradish, a right-hander, has a 4.24 ERA through three starts and has allowed a home run in each and every start. Brandon Belt ($3,800) has been an elite hitter over the last three seasons. He's slashed .281/.391/.573 with a .996 OPS against righties in that time. Now the southpaw is headed to Coors Field. Antonio Senzatela has a 4.88 ERA, which is fitting given that he has a career 4.85 ERA. Bargain Bats Julio Rodriguez ($3,000) debuted as one of baseball's top prospects, and he's already flashing one elite skill. He's stolen 10 bases already, and while righties have held him in check, he has a .783 OPS against lefties. Yusei Kikuchi is a lefty, and he has a career 4.92 ERA. There's not much power in Ke'Bryan Hayes' ($2,900) bat, but he's still a talented hitter. He has a career .286/.355/.424 slash line and he does have three stolen bases. He has more lead-off batter skills than a middle-of-the-lineup skill set. Since 2020, Wade Miley has allowed righties to hit .282 against him, which plays into Hayes' particular strengths as well. Stacks to Consider Angels vs. Jon Gray ($6,400): Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,400), Brandon Marsh($3,100) Gray has left Colorado, but it hasn't helped his numbers. Through four starts with the Rangers he has a 5.51 ERA, and on top of that he's been dealing with a knee issue. He's a righty, so I am stacking three Angels lefties against him. Ohtani isn't getting on base at the same clip as last year, but for fantasy players things have been totally satisfactory. He has eight home runs and five stolen bases. Walsh has six home runs after hitting 29 last season. He also has a .961 OPS versus righties since 2020. Marsh has a .783 OPS against righties in his career, and he's picked up four home runs and three swiped bags in 2022. Blue Jays vs. Chris Flexen ($7,000): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,600), Bo Bichette ($3,500), Raimel Tapia ($2,100) Flexen spent his first season as an MLB starter in 2021, posting a mediocre 3.88 FIP. This year is going even worse, as he has a 4.62 FIP through six starts. Flexen doesn't strike out batters at all, so the Blue Jays should be able to smack him around. We think of Guerrero's power, when you hit 48 home runs in a season that'll happen, but he can also hit for average. Over the last two seasons he's batted .306. Prior to this season, Bichette was batting at an elite level. He had a .301 average across his first three seasons, and last year he hit 29 homers and stole 25 bases. Tapia is a career .276 hitter, and he stole 20 bases last season as well. Cubs vs. Bryse Wilson ($6,600): Ian Happ ($3,200), Seiya Suzuki ($3,100), Alfonso Rivas($2,400) Wilson has a career 5.60 ERA, which is maybe all I need to say. And yet, I'll say more. Since 2020, lefties have hit .285 against him and righties have hit .283 against him. He's allowed 1.56 home runs per nine innings. Wilson is the kind of pitcher you expect to see at the back of the Pirates' rotation, and that makes him worth targeting. Happ isn't bringing the power, but he has a .385 OBP. Last year he did hit 25 home runs, though, and he stole nine bases for good measure. Suzuki has slowed down after a torrid start to his MLB career, which isn't surprising, but he's still slashed .257/.367/.475 with four homers and 16 RBI. Rivas is a lefty facing a righty, and he has a career .876 OPS against right-handed batters.