FanDuel NBA: Breakdown

INJURIES

PHI Joel Embiid (back) - QUESTIONABLE

Dwight Howard ($4,200) is your pivot if Embiid can't make it. His status should be determined before game lock as it is one of the early games.

DET Derrick Rose (knee) - OUT

Rose can't seem to put two games together with his lingering knee issue. With Killian Hayes (hip) inactive, production will flow to Delon Wright ($5,600) once again.

TOR Pascal Siakam (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

TOR Kyle Lowry (toe) - QUESTIONABLE

If you played over the weekend, you already know how influential these two absences were in lineup builds. It ended up being an excellent spot for Norman Powell ($3,600) and OG Anunoby($6,200), and they'd be the two value players to go to if these designations hold. Fred VanVleet($7,900) would also be a great option, albeit more expensive.

ORL Aaron Gordon (hip/back) QUESTIONABLE

Gordon took a seat Sunday, and Evan Fournier ($5,900), Cole Anthony ($5,400, and James Ennis($3,500) all beat value in the scenario. His absence opens up those options, so it's a situation to monitor as tip-off looms.

MIA Jimmy Butler (COVID-19) - OUT

MIA Tyler Herro (neck) - OUT

Goran Dragic ($5,800) and Kendrick Nunn ($6,500) are great options if these two players are sidelined, but the Bam Adebayo ($9,600) show is on full display during this injury situation. He's got a challenging game against Brooklyn, but 50 FDFP isn't out of the question here.

DAL Josh Richardson (COVID-19) - OUT

DAL Dorian Finney-Smith (COVID-19) - OUT

DAL Maxi Kleber (COVID-19) - OUT

DAL Dwight Powell (COVID-19) - OUT

A look at the starting lineup would be recommended here, but Jalen Brunson ($4,300) has been the most consistent value-beater at his salary while Dallas recovers.

BOS Kemba Walker (rest)- OUT

BOS Payton Pritchard (knee) - OUT

Pritchard will be out for a while, so I'd expect Carsen Edwards ($3,700) to have a larger role tonight while Walker rests. It's a nice matchup against the Bulls, so the rest of the Celtics starters are also in a good spot.

CHI Wendell Carter (thigh) - DOUBTFUL

I would stay away from Daniel Gafford here, but Lauri Markkanen ($6,500) and Thaddeus Young ($4,200) both have chances to beat value as Carter tries to get healthy.

MIN Karl-Anthony Towns (COVID-19) - OUT

MIN D'Angelo Russell (quad) - QUESTIONABLE

Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,400) and Naz Reid ($5,000) continue to fill in for Towns, and Anthony Edwards ($4,500) would be in line for more production if Russell doesn't suit up. Ricky Rubio($5,300) would also be worth a look.

ELITE PLAYERS

Two MVP favorites square off Monday, as Nikola Jokic ($11,200) will bring his talent to Dallas and face off against Luka Doncic ($10,700) and the Mavericks. Both players had excellent games the last time Denver and Dallas tangled, and despite their high salaries, I think both players are candidates to beat value tonight. It's also a decent night for Kevin Durant ($10,400) against Miami. He should have an easier time against the Heat due to the absence of Jimmy Butler. I am less enthralled with James Harden ($9,800), but I will have a bit more exposure to Kyrie Irving($9,400), who's clocking in with a usage rate of over 30 percent currently.

I feel like Anthony Davis ($10,100) and LeBron James ($9,800) are a little too expensive as they prepare for a possible blowout against Cleveland. However, you can never count LeBron out when he plays his former team, especially when they play in Cleveland. It may very well be worth playing this intangible with a few lineups. Damian Lillard ($9,700) will be nightly chalk for as long as CJ McCollum remains out, and tonight's game against the Thunder should have smash value for the All-Star. Do your best to get Lillard involved tonight.

The rest of the runners in the 9k range are all adequate, but I don't consider any of them to be 'must' plays. Of the group, you have to like Nikola Vucevic ($9,400) against the Hornets, and Stephen Curry ($9,600) should be solid against a weak Minnesota defense.

EXPECTED CHALK

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($8,200) @ POR

SGA is always going to be a play to consider with his SG eligibility, and he beat value at this salary in three out of the last four games. He clocks in with over 26 percent usage with the Thunder and is a worthwhile add against Portland.

Ben Simmons, PHI ($8,200) @ DET

You need to lock in Simmons against Detroit if Embiid is out tonight. I'd downgrade this endorsement otherwise. Since they are in a tilt against the Pistons, we have a 51.2 FDFP performance to look at from Simmons. That's certainly an encouraging number to refer back to, and if Embiid sits, his rebound numbers should spike.

Zion Williamson ($8,000) and Brandon Ingram, NOR ($7,700) vs. SAS

I had to include Ingram in this endorsement because his salary has dropped to a spot where he's difficult to ignore. Both of these players have a shot to blow up against the Spurs, who are on a back-to-back. Whenever I see Zion against the Spurs, I think about his breakout freshman performance against them, where he looked simply unbeatable. We could see a repeat here. I'm not beyond stacking these two at the risk of suffering from negative correlation, but it's probably a decision between one or the other.

Andrew Wiggins, GSW ($6,800) vs. MIN

You can bet Wiggins will have a chip on his shoulder as he faces his former team. I like this game for the Warriors in general, but it's perfect for Wiggins if you want to play the revenge intangible. His floor lives slightly below value, but I think a score in the 35 FDFP range is entirely doable tonight against the T-Wolves, who struggle against small forwards (and pretty much every other position).

Also consider: Jamal Murray, DEN ($7,000) @ DAL

VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and under)

Michael Porter, DEN ($6,400) @ DAL

It's sensible to give Porter a run now, as he's had two games to get his feet wet after being sidelined due to COVID protocols for 10 games. The absence drove his salary down to a point where it's hard to ignore when you consider his massive upside. Will Barton ($5,200) has been playing well, so he might still come off the bench, but he could be a surprise producer for the slate tonight.

Montrezl Harrell, LAL ($5,300) @ CLE

We all know the inherent value of the center position at FanDuel, and if I could fix one thing about the site, it would be adding a second center slot to their lineups. Only one spot makes taking a stab on a guy like Harrell extremely difficult, but he's a player who should benefit if the game gets out of hand. You can almost guarantee that Anthony Davis will sit if the Lakers lead by 20 or more going into the fourth quarter, and Harrell could do enough to meet value in that quarter alone. It's tough to go here with so many quality centers on the slate, but he's a great way to throw some contrarian flavor into a lineup or two.

Joe Harris, BKN ($4,700) vs. MIA

Harris has inherited a sweet spot in a very explosive starting lineup, making him easy to forget. DFS players learned not to discount him after he knocked down seven threes the other night against the Heat. Since they face the same opponent and a similar game script for both teams is possible, it's hard to move away from Harris at this salary.

Isaiah Roby, OKC ($4,500) @ POR

Roby doesn't have to do much to meet value against a weak Portland frontcourt, and the Thunder's key to winning may lie under the basket Monday. I also think Darius Bazley ($4,700) sets up well here in an exploitable spot. I'd lean to Bazley in cash, but Roby sets up as a good GPP option - he should be rostered no higher than five percent in most contests.

Justin Holiday, IND ($4,100) vs. TOR

Anytime you can get 39 minutes of production from someone in the 4k range, you should click away. Holiday may not get that much time on a nightly basis, but even if he only gets 30 minutes, he should have no trouble getting above 21 FDFP, which is all he needs to reach 5x value. Even though it's a colossal slate tonight, the SF position is always a bit stingy, and he's ideal as a value play.




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