Now that Turkey Day is in the rearview mirror, it's time to take a look at Sunday's slate of games. There seems to be a lot of games with close lines and the over/unders appear to be a big higher this week. Let's take a look at some wagers to consider betting on.
GAMES
Atlanta Falcons -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars - Atlanta has scored a whopping three points over their last two games and has to go on the road to face the Jaguars. Jacksonville is still a pretty bad team and it's hard to see the Falcons show up to this game less than motivated knowing they're playing a bad team. Look for Atlanta to bounce back here and I also like them hitting the over for team points at 23.5.
Los Angeles Rams (-2) at Green Bay Packers - This is one of the games I'm looking forward to the most and obviously liked it better when it came out as a pick'em. It's hard to see the Rams losing three in a row and coming off a Bye week I'd expect them to have regrouped and be ready to play. I'd also consider taking an alternative line (like Rams -9.5, +230) in the case this turns into a rout.
Carolina Panthers (-2) (-110) at Miami Dolphins
Let's talk about another road favorite, shall we? Miami can't stop a nosebleed and Carolina, similar to Philly, is transforming their look to a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newtonon the ground. The Panthers are now a team that will rely on a combination of ground-and-pound and solid defense to bully teams into submission. Bullies pick on the weak and there aren't too many units softer than the Dolphins' run defense. Sure, it might look improved on the surface over the last three weeks, but two of those games were against Houston and the Jets and the very odd performance by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Thursday night. I don't buy their improvement at all. I hold a nice ticket on Carolina to win the NFC South that I placed in the preseason, so I have been high on this team all year. With their weapons getting healthy, I see the Panthers getting a comfortable win before their bye and the stretch run.
PLAYER PROPS
Evan Engram OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards - The Eagles have been awful at defending the tight end position this season and there are a few other reasons to like Engram. He seems to have cured his issue of having the dropsies and the Giants are down Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. As of writing this, Engram doesn't have an over/under for receptions but if one pops up, I'd lean to taking the over depending on the number.
K.J. Osborn OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards - This line is a bit of a head-scratcher as Osborn hasn't gone over this mark in any of his last four games. Let's look at why there's optimism for the over here. First, it wouldn't surprise me to see this number drop before Sunday's contest given the recent lack of production; I'd wait as long as possible to take it. This game has a healthy over/under of 49.5, suggesting the ball should move up and down the field. Osborn had 26 or more receiving yards in five of his first six games and continues to run over 30 routes per game.
Ryan Tannehill UNDER 217.5 Passing Yards - I'm not really sure who Tannehill is going to throw the ball to given all of the injuries to their receiving corp. I'd expect the Patriots (seven-point favorites) to try and run the ball to control the clock and this to be a low-scoring affair. The Patriots typically try and take away the opposing team's best weapon and in this case I would guess that would mean stopping the run? Either way, I don't expect the Titans to move the ball much and guess Tannehill ends up with less than 200 passing yards here.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Rob Gronkowski +170 - Without looking I would have thought this line would be around +150. This game should have plenty of scoring with an over/under of 53 and the Bucs should slow down Jonathan Taylor. This should lead to a lot of passing on both sides and Gronkowski is another week removed from injury. Gronkowski had two touchdowns in two of the four games he's fully played in this season, suggesting this line should be lower. I'd sprinkle a little on his 2+ touchdown odds at +1000.
Robby Anderson +260 - The stars seem to be aligning for Anderson to hit a long touchdown in this game given a few things working in his favor. Miami has been terrible against the position this season ranking 30th in the NFL. Anderson now has Cam Newton throwing to him and I have more trust in Cam getting the ball downfield than I do in Sam Darnold. Finally, a healthy Christian McCaffrey will take a lot pressure off the wide receivers allowing them to see softer coverage.
Courtland Sutton +240, Jerry Jeudy +180 - This is one of those cases where I think one of the two of these players finds the end zone and if they both do, it's happy, happy, joy, joy time. The game has a nice over/under of 48 which is higher than usual for the Broncos. Sutton and Jeudy are both completely healthy, coming off the bye and Sutton just got paid so he should be ready to show he's earned the contract.
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