🏈 FONTAINE’S 5 (FREE)— NFL MNF PROPS

We’re attacking three spots that all line up based on matchup, usage, and how each offense is trending. These aren’t guesses — these are data-backed reads with clear paths to production.

1️⃣ DeMario Douglas – Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

Douglas is a specialist against man coverage, and this is exactly the matchup you want him in. The Giants play man more than any team in the NFL and struggle badly against slot receivers — bottom 10 in yards and receptions allowed to that position.

Douglas won’t see a massive target load, but with his quick-separation ability, he only needs one or two clean looks to get home. As long as the Patriots don’t jump out to a huge early lead (unlikely), the game script stays favorable.

Why we like it:✔ Elite man-coverage production✔ Giants are the dream matchup for slot receivers✔ High efficiency per target

2️⃣ Tracy – Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Without Skattebo in the lineup, Tracy’s role skyrockets — he takes on double the route share of any other Giants RB and becomes their primary receiving option. He has legitimate wide receiver experience, and the matchup enhances the edge: New England is weak against RBs in the passing game.

Post-Skattebo, Tracy averages around 3.5 targets, which gives him multiple opportunities to break a short catch into a chunk play. Unless the Giants somehow get a huge early lead, they’ll be throwing the ball.

Why we like it:✔ Role spike without Skattebo✔ Natural receiver skillset✔ Patriots struggle vs RB passes✔ Game script favors volume

3️⃣ Stefon Diggs – Anytime TD

Diggs’ season in New England has been unpredictable — five or fewer targets in six games, but then other weeks where he looks like a true WR1 again. What’s consistent is the matchup tonight: the Giants are terrible against opposing WRs, allowing the 8th-most catches, 5th-most yards, and 10th-most receiving TDs.

This is a butter matchup.It’s also Diggs’ birthday weekend, and the narrative is real — star WRs cook in these spots. Drake Maye’s mobility also helps, giving Diggs extra time to uncover against a shaky secondary. In the red zone, New England has been actively looking his way, ranking 17th in red-zone targets among all WRs.

This is a great spot for Diggs to pop.

Why we like it:✔ Dream matchup vs a bottom-tier secondary✔ Birthday narrative (these hit more than people think)✔ Red-zone usage is quietly strong✔ Maye’s mobility helps Diggs get open

🔥 Final Thoughts (Plays + Odds)

Here’s what we’re rolling with tonight:

1️⃣ DeMario Douglas – Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)Efficiency + matchup vs heavy man coverage.

2️⃣ Tracy – Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-113)Role spike + natural receiver + favorable defensive matchup.

3️⃣ Stefon Diggs – Anytime TD (+110)Birthday game + dream WR matchup + strong red-zone usage.

Three clean reads. Three strong paths to hitting.Let’s have a night. 🖤🔥— Fontaine’s 5