FONTAINE'S 5 PICKS: JAGUARS VS CHIEFS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) — Over 4.5 Receptions

Why I like it:

• With Rashee Rice suspended, Worthy is immediately a top-2 passing option with Kelce.

• Andy Reid is scheming him touches — motion screens, crossers, quick slants — not just deep routes.

• Jaguars’ defense allows one of the highest completion rates to WRs in the league, especially in the short/intermediate zones.

• Mahomes has thrown 7+ targets to Worthy in multiple games already.

Sharp angle: Line is mispriced as if he’s a boom/bust deep threat. Reality: he’s a volume WR2 with YAC upside.

Noah Gray (Chiefs) — Over 13.5 Receiving Yards

Why I like it:

• Gray consistently runs 50–60% of routes in 2-TE sets.

• Jaguars are a TE funnel defense (bottom-10 in yards allowed to TEs).

• With Kelce commanding double teams, Gray gets seam and play-action looks.

• His ADOT is ~9 yards. Two catches clear this line.

Sharp angle: A classic “low-bar over.” Books shaded this to 1 catch territory, but he’s been seeing 2–3 targets reliably.

Patrick Mahomes (CHIEFS) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Why I like it:

• Mahomes has cleared this line in 70% of his career starts

• Andy Reid leans pass in the red zone (61% vs league avg 54%)

• Jacksonville defense ranks bottom-10 in passing TDs allowed

  Sharp angle: Over 1.5 Passing TDs with a sprinkle on 3+ at plus money

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) Over 12.5 Rushing Yards

Why I like it:

• Chiefs rank top-5 in pressure rate. Lawrence scrambles when flushed — averaging ~20 rushing yards in 2025.

• In games vs high-pressure defenses, he’s cleared this in 6 of his last 7.

• Designed boots + red zone keepers also in play.

Sharp angle: Books still treat him like a pure pocket passer, but he has consistent 3–5 scramble attempts per game.

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) — Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Why I like it:

• True workhorse: 18+ touches, 4.4 YPC this season.

• Chiefs defense: stronger vs pass than run, allowing 4.6 YPC.

• Jaguars want to slow the game, keep Mahomes off the field → heavy Etienne usage.

• He’s hit 65+ yards in 3 of 4 games this year.

Sharp angle: Books priced him like he’s still splitting carries. He’s not.

Brenton Strange (Jaguars) — Over 3.5 Receptions

Why I like it:

• Strange is TE1 with Evan Engram gone.

• Chiefs defense plays a lot of man and Strange is among the best when facing man coverage

• Strange averages 5–6 targets, and his route share is ~70%.

• Lawrence leans on him as a checkdown when pressured.

Sharp angle: A volume bet disguised as fringe. 4 catches is his median outcome, not his ceiling.

Sneaky Play: Dyami Brown (Jaguars) — Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Why I like it:

• Brown plays behind Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, but still sees ~50–60% snaps in 3-WR sets.

• High ADOT (14–16 yards). Two catches clears this number.

• Chiefs’ secondary will key on Thomas Jr. and Hunter, leaving Brown singled up vs CB3/CB4.

• Game script: If Jags chase Mahomes, Lawrence’s attempts spike into 35–40+ → more chances for Brown.

Sharp angle: Volatile but perfect for DFS leverage. Public ignores him, but one deep shot pays it off.