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Fontaine’s Pick5 MNF: Cardinals @ Cowboys



Jake Ferguson — Over 41.5 Receiving Yards



Projection: 5 receptions | 52 yards median

Route Rate: 82 % of dropbacks

Target Share: ~20 % inside the numbers


  • Why It Works: Arizona ranks 30th in DVOA vs tight ends, giving up 63 yards per game to the position.

  • Usage Trend: Ferguson’s routes have climbed steadily in 11-personnel looks, and Dak trusts him as the hot-read when facing blitz.

  • Matchup Note: Cards linebackers allow 8.6 yards per target — one of the worst rates in the league.



Sharp Angle: This is a coverage mismatch. Ferguson’s seam-route volume plus play-action leaks give him 50-yard upside at a 41.5 line.




KaVontae Turpin — Over 1.5 Receptions



Projection: 3 recs | 29 yards median

Routes/Dropback: 54 % (Season high last week)

Average Depth of Target: 6.3 yards


  • Why It Works: Dallas is expanding Turpin’s usage in motion screens and jet-action looks to stretch defenses horizontally.

  • Defensive Fit: Arizona plays heavy Cover 4 zone, inviting underneath throws and quick flats.

  • Floor: He’s caught 2 + passes in 4 of last 5 games when on the field for ≥ 40 % snaps.



Sharp Angle: Low threshold + scripted touches. Two catches should come early through designed motions or bubble screens.





Jacoby Brissett — Over 16.5 Rushing Yards



Projection: 4 carries | 27 yards median

Designed Runs + Scrambles per Game: 4.3


  • Why It Works: Dallas’ defensive line is elite in pressure rate (32 %), forcing QBs to escape.

  • Trend: Brissett has topped 15 rushing yards in three straight starts when pressured ≥ 25 % of dropbacks.

  • Game Flow: As a road underdog, expect plenty of 3rd-and-longs → scramble lanes.



Sharp Angle: Pressure + man coverage opens scramble yards. One broken play gets him halfway home.




Trey McBride — Over 68.5 Receiving Yards



Projection: 6 recs | 78 yards median

Target Share: 27 % (Top-3 among TEs)

Yards per Route Run: 2.45


  • Why It Works: Dallas’ defense, while strong, concedes intermediate space to tight ends when linebackers blitz.

  • Coverage Fit: Brissett has a 92 QB rating targeting TEs vs Cover 2 / Cover 3.

  • Trend: McBride has gone 70 + yards in 4 of his last 5 games with 6 + targets.



Sharp Angle: He’s the offense’s alpha. With Arizona likely chasing points, his volume is locked in.




Zay Jones — Over 20.5 Receiving Yards



Projection: 3 recs | 38 yards median

Route Depth: 10.8 yards aDOT


  • Why It Works: Jones operates as Arizona’s boundary stretch option. Dallas’ press corners have allowed several intermediate completions when safeties shade inside.

  • Snap Rate: Up to 71 % after returning from injury — a strong indicator of trust.

  • Low Line: 20.5 is one catch + YAC away from a hit.



Sharp Angle: Complementary piece with explosive potential. Ideal add-on to McBride volume correlation.

 
 
 

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