FanDuel: $7,900 / DraftKings: $6,800 / Yahoo: $34 / F-Draft: $12,700
We don’t have a big price discrepancy at the quarterback position this week, so we can essentially take our favorite player and roll with him. Josh Allenoffers a high floor against a bad Texans secondary and is my second favorite play at the position. I certainly don’t mind Drew Brees at home against the Vikings, but I feel like we can capture most of his production through Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. I don’t trust either quarterback in the Titans/Patriots game, Kirk Cousins doesn’t play his best under pressure, and both Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz are expected to be without key weapons.
Through process of elimination and because I expect the Seahawks to put all of their eggs in his basket, Wilson is my favorite quarterback play of the week. We know the Seahawks want to run the ball, but they are playing without their first, second, and third string running backs. Travis Homer hasn’t proven an ability to handle a full workload and Marshawn Lynch is a shell of his former self. Additionally, the matchup sets up a lot better for the passing game than it does for the running game. The Eagles are ranked fourth in DVOA against the run and third in defensive adjusted line yards.
In what was essentially a must-win game last week against the Niners, we saw Wilson air it out 40 times on top of eight rushing attempts. It was one of the biggest workloads that we’ve seen from him all season and it was against the Niners. You can argue that he hasn’t flashed much upside recently, but the situation is clearly different. They won’t be able to run the ball against Philly and this is the playoffs. We’ve seen Wilson come through time and time again in this situations and I fully expect a big game from him against a beatable Eagles’ secondary.
FanDuel: $6,200 / DraftKings: $5,700 / Yahoo: $15 / F-Draft: $11,100
Do I like Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook this week? Absolutely, but it’s tough to fit any of them if you are rostering Michael Thomas, who in my opinion is the top play of the slate. For that reason, I have to save a bit at running back. It doesn’t feel great paying a premium for a running back that splits snaps with two other players, but White has been the Patriots best weapon in the playoffs over the years. They can no longer lean on Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman is dealing with a serious shoulder injury, and Sony Michel is running like he’s 35 years old. This doesn’t mean the Patriots won’t try to run the ball, but everything points to this being a White type of game.
We’ll start with the matchup against the Titans. They are ranked 10th in DVOAagainst the run and 10th in defensive adjusted line yards. Meanwhile, they are ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass and as mentioned above, Edelman doesn’t look anywhere close to being 100%. Over his last three games (which were all important), he has a total of 10 receptions for 107 yards. You can use N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu as tournament fliers, but they aren’t players that we want to rely on. That leaves us with White, who could very easily play over 50% of the snaps and see double-digit targets. The plays they design for him are essentially an extension of the running game except we get extra points for the receptions. On the season, the Titans have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to running backs.
FanDuel: $8,900 / DraftKings: $9,300 / Yahoo: $39 / F-Draft: $17,700
I originally had MT listed as a core play last week, but backed off it once he missed practice with his hand injury. He ended up playing the game, but didn’t see his usual snap count or target share. I really hope people will see that bad outing in what was mostly a meaningless game and look to fade him this week. I’m not saying MT is a lock for 30 fantasy points, but he’s as close to it as you are going to find in this slate. He broke the single-season reception record and has been a monster at home all season. Just for fun, check out his full-PPR outings in the Superdome — 25, 19, 44, 30, 31, 29, 33, and 34. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in each of his last six games in New Orleans.
From a roster construction standpoint, it’s easier to fit him on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings, but I will be jamming him into my lineups on all sites. He has a massive floor and a massive ceiling. You can argue that Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook have just as much upside, but they do not have the same floors as Thomas. All of this and we haven’t even mentioned his matchup against the Vikings, whose one weakness defensively is their secondary. They are ranked seventh in DVOA against the run and ninth in DVOA against the pass, but they have allowed the eighth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers. Let others make the mistake of fading MT this weekend.
FanDuel: $5,800 / DraftKings: $4,600 / Yahoo: $12 / F-Draft: $9,800
Could DeAndre Hopkins win in a one-on-one matchup against Tre’Davious White? Absolutely. Could Will Fullerreturn and have a breakout game? Sure. However, those aren’t the most likely scenarios. I still view Hopkins as an excellent tournament play this week, but a matchup against White is incredibly difficult. He’s shut down a number of WR1s this season and has the ninth highest coverage grade on ProFootballFocus (minimum of 80% snaps played). In our WR/CB matchup chart, White has the third highest coverage grade of any cornerback playing this weekend. Hopkins could still win this matchup, but White’s coverage could funnel a few targets elsewhere.
As for Fuller, he’s been able to practice on a very limited basis this week. While he is listed as a game-time decision, sources close to the situation are calling him a long-shot to play. So if Hopkins could see a few extra targets and Fuller is going to sit, this has to be the Stills week, right? The devil’s advocate here is that in the four games Fuller has missed this season, Stills has put up lines of 3-22-0 vs. Oakland, 4-52-0 at Jacksonville, 4-27-0 at Baltimore, and 2-8-0 vs. Denver. He’s severely underperformed as the WR2 in this offense, but those weren’t exactly the easiest matchups. We are in desperate need of value this weekend and Stills provides just that. He could easily end up with eight or more targets and if that happens, he is the right play at this price point.
FanDuel: $6,700 / DraftKings: $5,200 / Yahoo: $20 / F-Draft: $10,800
I was going to preface this pick with the contingency that Zach Ertz was out, but I’m not sure I need to. Even if Ertz is active and 100% healthy (which is impossible since he has a cracked rib and a lacerated kidney), the best way to attack Seattle is with a talented tight end. The Eagles are already without their top three receivers in DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, and Alshon Jeffery, which has funneled targets to the tight ends. Over the last three games (Ertz has played two of them), Goedert has still racked up a 23% target share and a 27% air yards share.
Ertz has yet to be cleared for contact and has been limited in practice all week. He could very well tough it out and take some snaps on Sunday, but he will be limited. This sets up perfectly for Goedert, who could easily rack up double-digit targets if Ertz is out or if he leaves the game early. The best part is that this is the final game of the slate, so many will lock in a tight end from one of the first three games. I noted that this is a great matchup and that’s because Seattle is ranked 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. If you are really worried about Ertz, you can build a lineup with Goedert in the flex and pivot to Greg Ward if Ertz ends up being active. Personally, I would still roll Goedert out.