ALLEN ROBINSON II ($7,700)
The Bears controlled their NFC North matchup from the get-go, which made their passing attack take a backseat for the second straight week. They now have had two straight games with under 200 total air yards, but Robinson dominated the usage in these games with over a 50% air-yard share.
In a matchup against the Jaguars, most DFS players assume it will be the same storyline for Robinson, who should be involved but lacks slate-breaking upside. PFF Greenline tells a slightly different story, as we find value in the Jaguars to cover the 7.5-point spread. The issue is that our model also leans toward the under, which projects this to be a close, low-scoring matchup that isn’t necessarily conducive to fantasy upside.
Unless Robinson sees all of the goal-line targets, he will have a difficult time getting over our fantasy point threshold in Week 16.
BRANDIN COOKS ($6,200)
Cooks has been disappointing from a fantasy perspective, as he hasn’t taken over a substantial portion of the Texans' passing volume after Will Fuller V‘s suspension. He hasn’t scored or gone over 100 yards in his past five games. He has run a route on 100% of dropbacks in four of those five outings, but Deshaun Watson us distributing the ball to a number of different pass-catching options.
The problem from a DFS perspective is that Cooks’ salary continues to rise despite him not clearing 15 fantasy points since Week 9. His ownership has held relatively strong, as we project it to be right at 10% in Week 16.
The Bengals showed some semblance of offensive production last week, with our projections expecting them to cover the 7.5-point spread. If this plays out, the Texans will be forced to pass throughout, which will hopefully set up the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cooks.
D.J. MOORE ($5,800)
Moore returned from injured reserve to his typical usage — a 23% team target share and over 30% of the air yards. This was his fourth game this season where he averaged over 10 yards after the catch, which highlights his game-breaking ability at any moment.
The Panthers’ matchup with Washington has the lowest total on the main slate, which should drive away almost all DFS ownership. Our current projections have Moore seeing 5.6% ownership against the fourth-best defense in the NFL. Their coverage unit has struggled at points, as this is a defense that relies heavily on its sixth-ranked pass-rush unit.
Moore should see a high percentage of routes against Kendall Fuller, which is the only pass-catching advantage the Panthers have, according to our chart. Moore definitely needs things to break right for him to get over this fantasy point threshold, but the ownership is low enough that he could pay off in a big way if he accomplishes that.
AMARI COOPER ($5,700)
Cooper was completely shut down in Week 15, as he posted his second-lowest receiving grade of the 2020 season. His three-game stretch of scoring a touchdown came to an end, but this still looks like a situation to buy into for DFS. Cooper was under a 10% team target share for the first time this year, which makes this seem like an outlier performance based on being shadowed by Richard Sherman on all 34 of his routes.
The matchup against the Eagles is not prohibitive from a coverage standpoint, as they sit 23rd in our opponent-adjusted coverage grades. Cooper has one of the better advantages on the slate and now has a reduced salary expectation based on his most recent performance. The time appears to be now to buy low on him. He could be a popular run-it-back option for the Jalen Hurts fans this weekend.
T.Y. HILTON ($5,500)
Our blowup model has been all over Hilton during his resurgent four-game stretch, as the Colts' passing offense is clearly flowing through him. He had a relatively quiet performance in Week 15, but this is still a spot where he could easily pay off his salary based on his recent usage.
The matchup against the Steelers doesn’t look as daunting as it once did, with the Colts actually favored after the Steelers' loss on Monday night. This is a spot where PFF Greenlineloves the Colts to cover, which should come about by sustained offensive success. The concern with Hilton is if there will be enough of an opportunity to exceed our fantasy point threshold, as he will be very touchdown-dependent in this matchup.
RUSSELL GAGE ($5,100)
Things are trending toward another Julio Jones DNP, which will continue to open up opportunities for Russell Gage. He is coming off a 10-target game with 20% of the team target share and 33% of the air yards. Ridley is getting all of the recognition, but Gage continues to pay off his salary expectation in DFS.
The Falcons now participate in the highest total on the main slate, with almost everyone projecting a shootout. The game script indicates the Falcons will be forced to throw playing from behind, but PFF Greenline actually likes them to cover the 10.5-point spread. We could see this game play out closer than expected, with back-and-forth scoring making for the perfect game stack scenario.
Gage’s ownership is tough to project, with our numbers currently low on him, but that should change by game time when news about Julio Jones becomes more official.
D.J. CHARK JR. ($4,800)
Chark is once again running as the deep threat in this offense, as he has been just shy of a 20% team target share but consistently above a 30% air-yard share. The encouraging thing is that these numbers have come on high volume; the Jaguars have the sixth-most air yards over the most recent three-game stretch. Over this same time span, Chark has seen the sixth-most air yards among wide receivers, which makes him an insane discount at his current salary.
The matchup will drive even more people away from Chark, but our predictive models actually like the Jaguars to cover. The only way this is going to happen is if they get some high-yardage plays in the passing game. Chark is the best option to make this opportunity happen Sunday.
CHAD HANSEN ($4,400)
It was a relatively quiet volume day for Chad Hansen, but he still rewarded fantasy players with a 38-yard touchdown reception. His underlying numbers were encouraging, as this was the second time he ran a route on over 90% of dropbacks. There are some blowout concerns with the Texans’ matchup against the Bengals, and Hansen could easily be the first player affected if the passing volume drops off. He has seen high-value targets downfield, but if those don’t hit early and the Texans are far ahead, his usage could plummet in Week 16.
DARIUS SLAYTON ($3,800)
The Giants’ passing attack is a complete disaster right now, and they now have a difficult matchup against a team that finally looks like it is hitting its stride. The betting markets expect a potential blowout, but PFF Greenline could see the Giants at least keeping it relatively close against the Ravens.
If they are able to be somewhat productive offensively, it should be because of Darius Slayton. He has seen all of the targets and air yards he can handle, taking on close to a 30% team target share and almost 40% of the air yards the past two weeks. He is criminally underpriced at $3,800 and should see next to no ownership this weekend.
There are far worse dart throws than Slayton based on his recent usage. Given how the injuries to the Ravens’ secondary play out, Slayton could easily have a plus matchup against Anthony Averett on Sunday.
JERRY JEUDY ($3,700)
It has been a disastrous late-season stretch for Jerry Jeudy, but things could easily turn around quickly. He is still seeing a significant percentage of the opportunities in this offense. The problem is that those opportunities have fallen off dramatically in recent weeks.
The Chargers could be a get-right spot for the entire Broncos offense. This game has a higher than expected total, and both defenses rank in the top half of the NFL in our opponent-adjusted grades. Jeudy could see Casey Hayward Jr. on the majority of routes, which will make his DFS ownership nearly non-existent. If needing a low-priced wide receiver option, there are a few viable candidates based on usage this weekend.
DENZEL MIMS ($3,600)
Mims returned to a full-time role and has now run a route on over 90% of dropbacks in his past three games. The target volume hasn’t exactly followed, and Mims has seen very few high-value targets in the red zone. The price is right, but the matchup could be challenging, as Mims will have the most difficult matchup among Jets receivers this weekend. While there are more viable options in this price range, Mims offers unique upside because of his high average depth of target.
MARK ANDREWS ($5,700)
Andrews’ paced the tight end position in fantasy scoring despite running a route on only 71% of dropbacks. The Ravens continued to press their offensive output in Week 15 — much to the delight of fantasy owners — as they finally look to be hitting on all cylinders in the hopes of finding a way into the playoffs.
The Giants’ defense started to receive some positive reviews in the middle of the season but has once again dropped well below league average in our opponent-adjusted defensive grades. This looks like another spot for the Ravens’ offense to dominate, and Andrews’ should once again be a focal point after seeing a target on over 20% of his routes the past six games.
ZACH ERTZ ($3,100)
Ertz’s usage is trending in the right direction, as he finally eclipsed 100 air yards and ran his most routes per dropback since his return. Ertz is not being used as a full-time player, but if he is on the field for over 60% of dropbacks, he can easily pay off his relatively modest salary.
The Eagles have turned into a functional offense with Jalen Hurts, which should bring about increased red-zone usage for Ertz. It will take only one touchdown to pay off his salary.
TYLER EIFERT ($3,000)
Eifert has quietly emerged as a viable tight end option for DFS after being on the field for over 60% of dropbacks the past four weeks. He has seen a consistent share of targets over this stretch. Our predictive model expects the Jaguars to keep it close in Week 16, which could create enough opportunities for Eifert to pay off his salary.
CEEDEE LAMB ($6,000)
Lamb’s 26% advantage in our matchup chart makes him look like the preferred option in the Cowboys' passing offense. His usage has started to trend in the wrong direction, as he hasn’t run a route on over 70% of dropbacks in the past three games.
He continues to dominate the target share, but his opportunities fluctuate on a game-by-game basis between short and long average depth of target opportunities. Since Dak Prescott’s injury, Lamb has had six games where he was under a 10-yard average depth of target. He was over a 15-yard average depth in the other three games, which makes his expected usage tough to project.
In a matchup that could be close throughout, expect Lamb to see a higher percentage of routes run with a couple of deep shots mixed in. If it plays out close to expected, Lamb could be one of the best DFS plays at the wide receiver position this weekend.
CHASE CLAYPOOL ($6,000)
Game script may have played a crucial role, but Claypool finally had encouraging usage on Monday night. He ran a route on almost 70% of dropbacks while maintaining his 26% target per route run rate. He also saw over 100 air yards for the first time in four weeks, as the Steelers finally realized he is their best downfield offensive weapon.
In a matchup with AFC playoff implications, expect the Steelers to get their rookie wide receiver involved early. He has unmatched upside if used in the same way as earlier in the season.
TRAVIS KELCE ($8,800)
Once again, the only real concern with Kelce is ownership, as he projects to be the sixth-highest owned player on the main slate. There are obvious reasons for this: Kelce offers unmatched floor and ceiling possibilities among tight ends. His salary is reaching untouched levels at the position. He has the third-highest salary among flex players this weekend.
If you can squeeze him into your lineups, he is clearly the best tight end play, but salary savings and game theory could be reasons to fade
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