top of page

Handicapping the NBA: Thursday Picks

Alex Barutha: Grayson Allen over 13.5 points + assists (-130) at Heat – FanDuel, 1:12 PM CT

I don't want to oversimplify this, but Allen posted 10 points on 10 shots and six assists across 28 minutes in the opener with Jrue Holiday playing 18 minutes. Holiday is out with a heel injury for this game, and Brook Lopez is out with a back injury. Allen should see more minutes and usage. He's not scared to fire up anything that's open and he's a better passer than people give him credit for.

De'Andre Hunter over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-111) vs. Mavericks – Fanduel, 1:14 PM CT

Before getting hurt last season, Hunter averaged 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 33.3 minutes. He saw real action in preseason, so we know he's fully healthy. He could easily hit the over on this with just points alone, and the Mavs aren't a good defensive team.

Tyler Herro over 21.5 points+ rebounds + assists (-110) vs. Bucks – DraftKings, 1:18 PM CT

Also consider: Herro 20+ points, 6+ assists, 6+ rebounds at +6500

The public is relatively down on Herro after a disappointing sophomore season, but he still averaged 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists. I know the Bucks are good and the Heat added talent with Kyle Lowry, but Miami's bench is seriously lacking offensive options, and I'd bank on Herro improving this season. He's also a solid bet for Sixth Man of the Year. He should see 30 minutes off the pine. Also, 65-to-1 for him to hit 20/6/6? Those odds are just out of line. He'll reach those numbers more than once this season, even when everyone is healthy.

Reggie Jackson over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120) – FanDuel, 1:20 PM CT

Jackson is probably a worse passer than you think, but the Clippers desperately need him to be a primary playmaking option – scoring or passing – with Kawhi Leonard out this season. I'm really worried about LA's offense. Eric Bledsoe is not the solution, and Marcus Morris can only do so much outside of spot-up threes. In last year's final eight playoff games, Jackson averaged 21.4 points, 4.4 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 37.6 minutes.

Nick Whalen: Tyler Herro OVER 14.5 points (+105) vs. Milwaukee – DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:15PM CT

Normally, I try not to buy too much into preseason hype, but Herro has looked like a vastly improved player following a semi-disappointing sophomore season. The Heat have enough pieces that they won't need to lean heavily on Herro, but he should lead the bench unit and absorb a decent chunk of the possessions vacated by Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic. The Bucks are also down their best guard defender in Jrue Holiday.

Joe Bartel: Duncan Robinson over 11.5 points against MIL + Draymond Green over 2.5 turnovers against LAC (+175) - DraftKings, 2:19 PM CT

There wasn't one specific prop bet that stood out, so in these situations, I tend to just try and build a small-ish parlay to capitalize on some of the obvious favorites. We know the Bucks struggle at defending the three-point line, and while Tyler Herro could easily pull off a Patty Mills-esque line, I think Robinson has a good shot too. Taking that bet straight up would be at -145, and if you're interested in that just jumping over to FanDuel (o/ 12.5 points) for -106 odds makes way more sense. We stay on DraftKings for the ever-intriguing turnover props which Alex Barutha so kindly identified Wednesday. Green averaged three turnovers last season and had five Wednesday, a figure I imagine could be similarly high Friday against a feisty Clippers defense. The possible minutes restriction for Green complicates matters and absolutely would not be the direction I'd go in a single bet (-160 odds), but as part of a parlay like this, I'm fine rolling the dice.

Michael Spero: De'Andre Hunter over 12.5 points against Dallas (-125) – DraftKings Sportsbook 1:33 PM

Hunter is set to start for Atlanta after missing the end of last season with a knee injury. The Virginia product is seemingly fully healthy heading into this year after averaging 27.6 minutes per game during two preseason appearances. Hunter averaged 17.5 points per game during his starts last season and should have no problem passing his 12.5 point line in what should be an exciting matchup against the Mavericks.

Damion Lee over 8.5 points against Los Angeles (+100) – DraftKings Sportsbook 1:40 PM

Lee impressed in the Warriors' first action of the season, finishing with 15 points on 10 attempts during 29 minutes of play. The veteran guard played the most out of any Warrior bench player, and tonight's matchup against the Clippers also resides on Lees' birthday. The recently turned 29-year-old is in a good spot to have a solid outing in his second game of the year.

9 views0 comments


bottom of page