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JAGUARS VS BENGALS : THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN

JAGUARS +7.5 AT BENGALS 46

DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE

JAGUARS VS PASS 30 // VS RUSH 15 // PASS 30 // RUSH 5 // TEAM 19

BENGALS VS PASS 8 // VS RUSH 2 // PASS 23 // RUSH 20 // TEAM 31

Source - Footballoutsiders.com 

MATCHUPS FOR SHOWDOWN

We get an intriguing matchup tonight between a pair of number one overall picks in Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. It has been a struggle for Lawrence completing just 54% of his passes for 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on the season. He faces a tough test against a revived Bengals defense that has looked decent to start the season. One bright-spot being James Robinson who averaged 5.9 YPC against the Cardinals and found the end zone. Playmakers to consider in showdown formats on the Jaguars side;

  • James Robinson (RB, 9.4K), 53% snaps, 12rush (avg), 24 routes (avg), 5 tgts (avg)

  • Marvin Jones (WR, 8.6K), 93% snaps, 35+ routes (avg), 10 tgts (avg)

  • DJ Chark (WR, 7.2K), 88% snaps, 33 routes (avg), 7.5 tgts (avg)

  • Laviska Shenault (WR, 6.6K), 72% snaps, 30 routes (avg), 6.76 tgts (avg)

  • Jacob Hollister (TE, 1K), 69% snaps (wk3), 27 routes (wk3), 6 tgts (wk3)

  • Dan Arnold (TE, 4.4K), 37% snaps (avg), 12 routes (avg), 3.5 tgts (avg)

You have to like Joe Burrow & the Bengals chances of heading into the weekend 3-1 as they are more than a touchdown favorite against the Jags. Joe Burrow has been highly efficient completing 71% of his passes for 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The one thing to note is this team is very balanced; heavily leaning on Joe Mixon in a true workhorse role playing over 80% of the snaps and dominating their rush share. I’d expect much of the same in a spot where they are the better team and home favorites by more than a touchdown. Here are the playmakers to consider in showdown formats on the Bengals side;

  • Joe Mixon (RB, 11K), 81% snaps (avg), 20 rush (avg), 12 routes (avg), 2 tgts (avg)

  • Ja’Marr Chase (WR, 10.2K), 85% snaps (avg), 27 routes (avg), 6.5 tgt (avg)

  • Tyler Boyd (WR, 7.4K), 85% snaps (avg), 27 routes (avg), 7 tgt (avg)

  • Auden Tate (WR, 400), 49% snaps (wk3), 9 routes (wk3), 1 tgt (wk3)

  • CJ Uozmah (TE, 4K), 75% snaps (avg), 19 routes (avg), 1.75 tgts (avg)

  • Drew Sample (TE, 200), 30% snaps (avg), 4 routes (avg), 0 tgts (avg)

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

I am running 75-100 builds tonight & this strategy aligns with what I am doing

One of the first things I will do is head over to an optimizer, eliminate two players who won’t play, and I’ll run the opto. This will give you a basic outline of where the ‘projection based optimal lineup’ is at. Sure, this lineup can win but it will most likely be chopped a bunch of different ways. The “optimal” build, based off our projections, is on par with what I thought it might look like; Joe Mixon CPT + Both QBs + a few playmakers. Ownership wise, here are the top owned players the optimal produced; Laviska Shenault 70%, Joe Burrow 70%, Trevor Lawrence 70%, Mike Thomas 70%, Tyler Boyd 60%, Marvin Jones 60%, and Joe Mixon CPT 60%. One thing I am not seeing is ownership to the kickers and none of the defenses are in any of the lineups. Typically, I do prefer to fade the defenses but I do think the Bengals DEF is in play Thursday night.

Initial takeaways — (1) Most might find a Bengals/Jaguars game boring but I am really looking forward to this matchup. (2) I don’t have any huge showdown wins (yet) but the process has been on point the last three slates, and I’ve been profitable in those slates, meaning we are going to absolutely crush this game. (3) Don’t be afraid to give a bump to the Kickers and Cinci Defense on this slate.

  • Rule 1 – This is going to sound odd but my first rule will be; giving Joe Mixon a bump to his projection, decreasing Joe Burrow’s projection, and increasing Trevor Lawrence so that his is more than Burrows — the thought here is playing on a game script where Cinci controls the game, sticks with their conservative play calls, and Lawrence is forced to throw more playing from behind.

  • Rule 2 – I will KEEP the Cinci defense in my player pool & I will have exposure to BOTH kickers (not necessarily in the same build)

  • Rule 3 – I will be full fading Carlos Hyde; he is 1.8K and is actually popping in the optimizer given his projection relative to his price. Hydes production has decreased each week since they faced Houston.

CAPTAIN PLAYS

  • Joe Mixon, 16.5K – Mixon is my favorite Captain, I think he puts up 100+ & at least one TD

  • Tyler Boyd, 11.1K – Boyd is relatively cheap and has been one of Burrows favorite targets w/o Higgins

  • Marvin Jones, 12.9K – Primary target of Lawrence and fits the game script real well

  • DJ Chark, 10.8K – A guy who always has big play upside, we can be heavy Cinci but still play him at CPT

  • Laviska Shenault, 9.9K – I think its plausible for one of these Jags WR’s to be in the optimal at the CPT position even with a script where we have the Bengals winning by a good margin.

FLEX PLAYS

  • QB’S — Trevor Lawrence (Overweight), Joe Burrow (Underweight)

  • RB’S — Joe Mixon (Overweight), James Robinson (In line w/ Field)

  • WR’S — Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones (Overweight), DJ Chark, Ja’Marr Chase, Laviska Shenault, Auden Tate (In line w/ Field)

  • TE’S — Dan Arnold (In line w/ Field), I don’t mind fading or being under on the other TE’s

  • DEF — Bengals (Overweight), Jags (Fade)

  • Kickers — Its never difficult to get overweight on Kickers, will have exposure to both.

AP’S CORE BUILDS

  • Joe Mixon CPT + Marvin Jones + Bengals DEF — 6.4K / Player

  • DJ Chark CPT + Joe Mixon + Trevor Lawrence — 5.9K / Player

  • Laviska Shenault CPT + Joe Mixon + Trevor Lawrence — 6.2K / Player

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