Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Ashby vs. Bryse Wilson
Ashby has had some tough luck this season, as his 1-5 record and even his respectable 4.25 ERA are belied by several other metrics. The southpaw has allowed a minuscule 4.0 percent barrel rate, 27.5 percent sweet-spot rate, .220 xBA, 11.0 K/9 plus a .289 xwOBA and 3.03 xERA that are both notably lower than his respective actual 3.15 and 4.25 figures in those categories. Ashby also already stymied the Pirates for one earned run on one hit over 5.2 innings at PNC Park on April 27, and Pittsburgh has just a .234 average, .285 OBP and .302 wOBA against lefties at home since May 1.
Wilson, who is being called up from Triple-A Indianapolis for this start, is in the midst of another rough season, as evidenced by his 0-4 record, 8.29 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Those numbers are pretty much an accurate representation of his body of work, as he also has a .328 xBA, .542 xSLG and.400 xwOBA. The right-hander did blank Milwaukee over four innings in his one prior meeting with the Brew Crew this season; however, he comes into Saturday's start with a 14.11 ERA, 2.59 WHIP and 2.5 HR/9 over his last 14.2 big-league innings, and the Brewers own a .327 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month.
MLB Best Bets for Brewers at Pirates
The Pick: Brewers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (Odds TBD) for 1 RW Buck
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Austin Gomber
Keuchel induced 15 swinging strikes in his first start for the Diamondbacks on Sunday, but he still pitched to plenty of contact while giving up four earned runs on six hits and three walks across 4.1 innings. The left-hander carries a 7.93 ERA and 2.15 WHIP overall this season, along with a troublesome combination of a 14.5 percent strikeout rate and mammoth 12.4 percent walk rate. While a 4.41 xERA hints at the fact Keuchel may not have performed quite as bad as his surface numbers indicate, Coors Field is about the most dangerous field for any lefty tread these days. Colorado has been a completely different offense at home, where the Rockies are putting up an MLB-high 5.7 runs per game and have also pounded southpaws for a .308 average, .880 OPS, .381 wOBA and MLB-high 26.0 wRAA at home.
Gomber hasn't been any better than Keuchel overall, with the Rockies' southpaw encountering plenty trouble himself at home. Gomber owns a 6.68 ERA, .336 BAA and .410 wOBA across 33.2 frames at Coors, and Arizona has a solid .322 wOBA against lefties on the road in the last month. What's more, Gomber's strikeout rate is down almost a full 6.0 percent compared to last season, and he gave up at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts before a brief two-appearance demotion to the bullpen.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Rockies
The Pick: Over 6.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1.22 RW Bucks
Secondary Picks: Rockies Over 3.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Brewers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (Odds TBD) for 1 RW Buck
Diamondbacks-Rockies Over 6.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1.22 RW Bucks
Rockies Over 3.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (+100 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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