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MLB Best Bets, Picks, and Predictions for Tuesday, April 4

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees

The Phillies have started the season with a severe hangover from their loss in the World Series to the Houston Astros and the season-ending injury to Rhys Hoskins. Bryce Harper is recovering well from his offseason surgery but remains sidelined for the foreseeable future. Still, this edition of the Phillies is extremely talented and they will figure it out and start winning games.

A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System

The following situational betting system has produced consistent profits over the past five seasons and has earned a 29-25 record for 54% winning bets averaging a +178 underdog wager and producing a highly profitable 45% return on investment (ROI). The requirements are:

  • Bet on road teams in an inter-league matchup and face a -135 or greater host

  • The host averaged 1.25 or more home runs per game in their previous season

  • The host played at home and scored at least 8 runs in their previous game

The Yankees averaged an MLB-leading 1.56 home runs per game last season and defeated the Phillies 8-1 Monday. I am betting the Phillies at +135 on the money line.

Player Prop Best Bets for Yankees vs. Phillies

Bet Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +235 at DraftKings

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers defeated the Mets 10-0 in the first game of this three-game series and have won 16 of the past 21 games against the Mets since the 2016 season. The Brewers rookie Brice Turang hit his first career home run, a grand slam, and veteran starter Freddy Peralta picked six scoreless innings to earn the win. The Mets had problems scoring runs last season and they appear to be challenged again this season despite many offseason moves.

The Mets may not have to score many runs to get the win Tuesday having veteran starter Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.05 ERA) on the hill. The Brewers counter with their veteran left-handed starter Wade Miley, who will be seeking his 100th career win. For his career, Scherzer is just 3-3 despite posting a stingy 2.01 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Brewers. Miley has made six career starts against the Mets a posted a pedestrian 1-1 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.486 WHIP.

Brewers vs Mets Best Bets

Bet the Under 8 Runs (FanDuel Sportsbook)

My predictive models point to a solid betting opportunity on the Under and always shop for the best prices possible. Scherzer is 41-20 Under the posted total for his career when facing NL Central opponents. Brewers skipper Craig Counsel is 57-35 Under when facing teams that average four or fewer walks

The following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 43-18 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and not a single losing record season has occurred over these five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet the Under with a road team that averaged 0.65 or fewer errors per game last season

  • The road team is coming off a game getting four or fewer hits

The Mets had three hits in yesterday's loss.

Player Prop Best Bets for Brewers vs Mets

Wade Miley Over 3.5 strikeouts -140 at DraftKings

Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts -110 at DraftKings

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