Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is a perfect matchup for an UNDER as both starting pitchers are throwing great and both offenses are struggling. The Pirates are dead last against right-handed pitching since April 21 with a woeful 48 wRC+. The Cubs have a 88 wRC+ in the same split.
Javier Assad has gone UNDER his earned runs totals in all seven starts and the UNDER has hit in seven out of his last 10 games (16-7-2 all time to the UNDER). Jared Jones has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in 6-out-of-7 starts with an average of 7.4. He is at 6.5 with about -135 juice or 7.5 with plus money. I have learned best to just lay the juice and take the lower number on props.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Pirates
Cubs/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.15 unit (FanDuel -115)
Jared Jones OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1.34 unit (FanDuel -134)
Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have continued to struggle against left-handed pitching, but this is Patrick Corbinand his home/road splits are terrible to say the least.
Home – 17.1 innings, 3.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Road – 20.1 innings, 8.85 ERA, 2.07 WHIP
With Tanner Houck on the mound for the Red Sox, I will look at laying -1.5 at just about EVEN money. This is the highest the Red Sox have been as home favorites this season. In 2023, they were 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 to the UNDER when home favorites of -175 or greater.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Red Sox
Red Sox -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +102)
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Two teams headed in opposite directions and at this point it is hard not to look at the Phillies in some sort of fashion on every slate. The Phillies are 8-2 and 16-4 SU last 10/20 and 12-3-1 in the F5. The Marlins are near the bottom in F5 with a 5-13-1 record (-$714); but even worse on the moneyline at home 5-15 (-$999).
Ranger Suarez (6-0, 1.72 ERA) versus Trevor Rogers (0-5, 6.15 ERA) is a huge mismatch on the pitching side. The Phillies are a heavy road favorite at -205, so they only work in parlays. Take a look at F5 or full-game moneyline plays here. Suarez has been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball at +539.
I have only had one bet of this size all season and this is another one where we get a two-unit play.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Marlins
Phillies -1.5 for 2.2 units (BetMGM -110)
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
Looking at splits is a huge piece of baseball handicapping and we have a couple cases of that here. Logan Webb's home/road splits are significant. He is 7-3 SU and 8-2 to the UNDER in his last 10 home starts (13-7 SU and 15-5 to the UNDER last 20).
Home 22.0 innings (three starts), 0.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP vs. Road 24.1 innings (five starts), 5.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP
The Reds are 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and wRC+ over the last 21 days. They have lost eight in a row and 11 out of their last 13 (9-4 to the UNDER). Their May slashline is a gross .167/.234/.255.
-150 is just on the borderline of when I take a moneyline vs. a run line.
My concern in this game is that the Giants are also not hitting which means a moneyline and run line play is not in consideration. I was looking at both starting pitchers either under their earned runs or over their recorded outs, but will go with a full-game total under 7.5.
MLB Picks for Reds at Giants
Reds/Giants UNDER 7.5 for 1.2 unit (BetMGM -120)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Cubs/Pirates UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.15 unit (FanDuel -115)
Jared Jones OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1.34 unit (FanDuel -134)
Red Sox -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +102)
Phillies -1.5 for 2.2 units (BetMGM -110)
Reds/Giants UNDER 7.5 for 1.2 unit (BetMGM -120)
4 LEG PARLAY - Red Sox/Phillies/Braves/Dodgers ML for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +485)
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