Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are the class of the American League East and put up 11 runs on the Red Sox yesterday. Baltimore is 4-0 against Boston this year with a 34-13 runs for and against. They are 13-7 over their last 20, 18-10 at home and 21-14 against right-handed pitching.
Grayson Rodriguez and Brayan Bello is a great matchup, but Bello has been vulnerable to the home run ball, especially against left-handed batters. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 home games in the F5. Getting the Orioles in a spot under -120 at home is great value, especially considering the gap between these two teams.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Orioles
Orioles -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Cole Ragans has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and has picked up where he left off last season. He has hit OVER 17.5 recorded outs in five straight, gone UNDER on hits allowed in four out of five, and gone OVER 94 pitches in those last five as well.
The Twins are middle of the road against left-handed pitching in the last month, so there is not much risk on Ragans in this spot.
When it comes to player props, you MUST shop around because the odds can vary by quite a bit.
MLB Picks for Royals at Twins
Cole Ragans OVER 17.5 outs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
I went with an UNDER in Padres/Reds last week when it was Joe Musgrove against Andrew Abbottand it easily cashed with a 2-0 score. Oddsmakers keep posting these high totals in Cincinnati based on the ballpark, but when you have a strong starting pitcher in Abbott, a weak offense in the Reds, and a very weak offense in the Cardinals against left-handed pitching, all signs are pointing to another UNDER.
The Reds are dead last in wRC+ and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last month and that has not changed.
If you only want to take Abbott under his earned runs prop here, I can understand, but 9.5 is a ton of runs even if something goes hairy with the bullpens. Abbott has gone UNDER his earned runs allowed prop in nine out of 10 starts.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Cardinals
Cardinals/Reds UNDER 9.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Taking a pitching prop is always risky at Coors Field, but Triston McKenzie has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in seven straight starts. The Rockies have not been hitting at home against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days with a 82 wRC+ and bottom-five ISO (.134).
The Guardians are the hottest team in baseball right now, going 9-1 in their last 10 and Ryan Feltner has been up and down all season. McKenzie needs to get through 5.0 innings here to have a shot at this one and he should be able to. He has gone at least 5.0 in six out of his last seven starts.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Rockies
Triston McKenzie OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
I went against Nestor Cortes in his last road start and will again here, but this time on the TOTAL because I can see both teams putting up some runs. His home/road splits are some of the worst in baseball
Home – 1.12 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Road – 6.75 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9
The Yankees are No. 1 in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 136 wRC+ in the last 30 days. The scary part about Griffin Canning in this spot is he just does not get enough swing and misses, with 3.6 strikeouts per start over his last 10.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Angels
Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -121)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Orioles -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
Cole Ragans OVER 17.5 outs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
Cardinals/Reds UNDER 9.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -115)
Triston McKenzie OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -125)
Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -121)
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