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MLB Bets for Tuesday, October 11

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

The divisional round opens up with the Phillies at Braves with Ranger Suarez against Max Fried. Both pitchers have looked strong and the money line has the Braves -200 and the total is 7.0-7.5 in some spots. We saw this same matchup on September 16th and Fried was -210. The Braves won 7-2 but they scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 8th. We also saw this matchup on September 22nd with the Phillies taking it 1-0.

Both pitchers are well rested as is the Braves bullpen and I expect a low scoring game Monday afternoon.

MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Braves

  • Phillies/Braves UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.20 RW buck (FanDuel -120)

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

This series opens with Logan Gilbert against Justin Verlander and the Astros -215 with a total of 6.5. Verlander has faced the Mariners 6 times this year with a 2.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. Stack that on top of his HOME split of 1.64 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and you have your AL Cy Young winner.

In 15 home starts, he allowed just 4 home runs and 12 walks. That means baserunners will be at a premium and you are not running against Martin Maldonado.

I think it is will be very hard for the Mariners to score any runs today and I will look at their team total going under.

MLB Best Bets for Mariners at Astros

  • Mariners UNDER 2.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)

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Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

The Yankees opened a -205 favorite with a 7.0 total against the Guardians on Tuesday night and a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill vs. Gerrit Cole.

The Guardians have had the best bullpen in baseball the 2nd half of the season, while the Yankees have fallen to 20th after being top 5 in the 1st half. That is enough of a difference for me to like the Guardians to win the series in 5 games. This is a bad matchup for the Yankees as the Guardians do not strike out, play great defense, and run the bases. The cold weather in the 2 games in Cleveland will neutralize runs and I can see most of these games being very close and lower scoring.

With that being said, I will grab the +1.5 runs on the road dog which is not something I do very often, but this situation is setup perfect for that play.

MLB Best Bets for Guardians at Yankees

  • Guardians +1.5 runs for 1.25 RW buck (FanDuel -125)

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers opened -225 with a total of 7.5 runs as it will be Julio Urias facing Mike Clevinger. The Dodgers owned the Padres in the season series 14-5 and ran roughshod over everyone in the National League this year. Clevinger looks to be a sacrifical lamb as the Padres started Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove against the Mets. He lasted only 13 innings in his 3 starts against the Dodgers this year with a 9.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

The Dodgers averaged 5.23 runs per game and were about the same home vs. road. They averaged 5.5 in the last 30 homes games and 5.9 in 10 home games against the Padres.

MLB Best Bets for Padres at Dodgers

  • Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Phillies/Braves UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.20 RW buck (FanDuel -120)

  • Mariners UNDER 2.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)

  • Guardians +1.5 runs for 1.25 RW buck (FanDuel -125)

  • Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)

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