Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles 7:05 pm EDT
One of the angles I love is when we have a strong starting pitcher vs. a weaker pitcher with a middle-of-the-road team vs. a bad team. When the stronger pitcher is on the road, we get better odds on the play. The reasoning here is that the bad team (home) doesn't have much of an advantage anyway.
The F5 play is great because it really looks at each starting pitcher and you can work the odds on the run line. Laying just -0.5 runs in the F5 here at -106 on FanDuel is the play for me tonight.
Neither team is playing well but Zimmermann is really starting to fade. In his last three starts, Zimmermann has allowed 6, 4, and 5 earned runs. Outside of one very bad start against Toronto, Bieber has been his usual solid self. In those eight starts minus the Toronto one, he has a 2.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians-Orioles
Guardians -0.5 F5 for 1.06 RW buck (FanDuel -106)
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees 7:05 pm EDT
The Yankees are over a -300 favorite at home against the Tigers as the pitching matchup is about as lopsided as it gets. +300 underdogs can win as we saw with the Pirates vs. the Dodgers, but in this case, the Tigers just can not score and keep the game close. Unknown starting pitchers can be feast or famine. No matter how lopsided things look, I learned my lessons last year laying -2.5 runs. It never worked out for me.
MLB Best Bets for Tigers-Yankees
Yankees -1.5 F5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers 8:05 pm EDT
Another angle I like, which is similar to the Guardians / Orioles game, is when you have two bad teams but two decent starting pitchers. Often times with two bad teams, the bullpens are bad and they juice up the run total. But when you play the F5 under in this scenario, there is a lot of hidden value as you are playing the starting pitchers and not the bullpen. Rotowire projections have both pitchers at 8th/11th on the slate. I am not in love with the 4.5 line or the 3.5 line but will lay the juice as I can see this being 2-2 or 3-1 after 5.
MLB Best Bets for Mariners-Rangers
Under 4.5 runs F5 for 1.58 RW buck (FanDuel -158)
Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals 8:10 pm EDT
It has been rinse, repeat, with betting the Astros and unders. More of the same here with a posted total of 9. The Astros lead the majors in ROI % +40 on unders, with 8 out of their last 10 going under. They are a whopping 6-22-2 in totals over the last 30 games (May 1st).
MLB Best Bet for Astros-Royals
Under 9 runs for 1.15 RW buck (BetMGM -115)
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics 9:40 pm EDT
I have had more luck betting on the Red Sox totals vs. the sides lately. But I do like going under on the A's, especially at home against a strong starting pitcher. Eovaldi has incredible batter vs pitcher stats against this A's lineup as they are just 1 for 27 combined. The total has moved from 7 to 7.5 which is all on the Red Sox side.
MLB Best Bets for Red Sox-Athletics
A's under 3 runs for 1.05 RW buck (FanDuel -105)