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MLB Betting: Friday

I had a nice bounce-back last article, going 5-1 and hitting my bonus bet on under 3.5 runs in the Giants/Padres. Tough slate today with the strongest play I had going off in the Mets/Diamondbacks game (which I posted on Twitter @FantasyRath). The slate is tough as most games are between -110 and -150 on the money line and most of the pitching is 4th/5th starters.

Yankees vs. Orioles 7:05 pm EDT (Yankees -200, Total 9)

When I look at taking the run line, there are a few things to consider. I want a very strong starting pitcher at home facing a very weak starting pitcher. I think we have a solid home starting pitcher in Jordan Montgomery against an extremely weak starting pitcher in Jordan Lyles, so that qualifies.

I also want a team that can hit for power so when that bad pitcher starts allowing base runners, it will hurt him. We have that in the Yankees who are 7th in baseball for ISO (Isolated Power).

BET – Yankees -1.5 runs for 1.3 RW buck (-130)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers 8:10 pm EDT (Brewers -155, Total 8.5)

Early on this season, I am looking for opportunities to go under on games in which I think the oddsmakers have made mistakes on the lines. This is a case such as the one I hit Wednesday (Padres/Giants in which I even took under 3.5 runs to cash). The totals on Peralta's home starts are usually in the 7.0 – 8.0 range. Plus we are in an offensive suppressed environment right now, and the books just haven't adjusted. This total should be 7.5 – 8.0.

We have a strong starting pitcher at home going against a decent middle-of-the-pack road starter. We also have a strong line move on the favorite from -135 to -155.

But the Brewers lineup is not producing much power right now, which will limit their scoring output. Peralta is 6-3-1 to the under in his last 10 home starts being a -150 or higher favorite. The Brewers bullpen is strong, which leads me to also want to be on the under for the game. The only wrinkle is Peralta can have control issues and end up giving up the long ball so hopefully he can avoid that today.

BET – Under 8.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (-115)

BET – Under 4.5 runs F5 for 1.2 RW buck (-120)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds 10:10 PM EDT (Dodgers -250, Total 9)

The Dodgers were 62-25 at home last year including the playoffs, including a 29-7 record in their last 36. They averaged 5.05 runs per game vs. allowing 3.05 in the 87 home games. They are 24-6 over their last 30 when favored at home of -200 or greater.

I will look for spots to bet them at home and this is one of them. As long as I do not have to lay more than -1.5 at -120 it makes sense. The Reds were one of the teams in the midst of a fire sale in the offseason so they are much weaker this year. The spread between the two teams is pretty significant and I like Tony Gonsolin as a solid back end of the rotation starter who can give a solid 5-6 innings, especially at home. The total opened at 10 and was steamed down to 9 pretty quickly, while the money line did move up from -240 to -250.

BET – Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1.2 RW buck (-120)

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