I have been on this commentary about runs being in decline this month (homeruns are in decline) and the numbers/totals have reflected that. The key now is watching what the sportsbooks do. They have already been adjusting run totals by about 0.5 runs downward based on my calculations. Sometimes they are slow to reach on a team and I think we get a few scenarios like that today.
Also, look to go against teams that have some hitters out of the lineup whether its COVID or injuries. Look at the run totals in the Orioles/A's series. Oddsmakers completely blew the totals and it was easy money in 3 out of the 4 games. The A's were missing a lot of hitters, their park is an extreme pitchers' park, and the Orioles are one of the worst offenses in baseball right now.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds 6:40 pm EDT
The total on this game has already dropped from 9.5 to 8.5 so a lot of the value has been taken already. The Reds have scored 3 runs or fewer in 8 consecutive games and have lost 9 in a row. The Cardinals are 7-4, but in their 7 wins they have outscored opponents 40-10.
BET – Cardinals -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+135)
BET – Reds under 3.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105)
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals 7:05 pm EDT
Early on, I am looking at teams with the biggest run differential spread and looking for value. I saw it in the game above and in this game. The Giants have a +19 run differential vs. the Nationals at –20.
The Giants lineup does take a hit against left-handed pitching, but Patrick Corbin has a 7.50 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 2 starts. The Giants lineup eats up mediocre pitching that has a high walk / low strikeout profile.
The Giants play a lot of close games, so I don't want to lay -1.5 runs, but I do like the ½ half run line in the first 5 innings and will lay the -125 for them to win the game.
BET – Giants -0.5 runs F5 for 1 RW buck (+105)
BET – Giants to win for 1.25 RW buck (-125)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees 7:05 pm EDT
The Guardians are the most interesting team in baseball right now and they just swept the White Sox in 3 games by a total of 19-5.
The teams who are making contact, getting on base, and not striking out are seeing positive results. The Guardians are at the top of the list in all those categories. There is always a huge tax on the Yankees especially at home, and I think we have a much closer pitching matchup here.
The Yankees pitching has been top 3 in baseball, but they aren't scoring. A lot of that goes into what I said above about the teams who are successful right now in this suppressed homerun environment. The Yankees offense is not made to be able to manufacture runs. They have gone under the total in 10 out of 13 games.
BET – Guardians to win for 1 RW buck (+170)
BET – Under 9 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +108)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros 8:10 pm EDT
The Jays are 9-4 to the under so far and the Astros are 7-5. Both lineups are not at 100% with Toronto missing Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen, and potentially George Springer. The Astros are without Jose Altuve and missing Carlos Correa from last year. Verlander can go deep into this game helping limit the output on the Jays side while the Astros have only scored more than 4 runs twice.
BET – Under 8.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (-115)
BONUS BET – 4 team parlay (FanDuel) for 0.1 RW buck to win 9.75
Jays/Astros under 8.5, Yankees/Guardians under 9, Giants -130, Cardinals -126