San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 9:07 pm EDT
The Dodgers had 14 games in which they were home favorites between -100 and -160. The average score in those games was 4.2-3.3 and they were 9-5 SU. The Giants took 3 out of 4 from the Dodgers in those 14 games.
The Dodgers are 9-4 in games that Gonsolin started (6-1 at home), but the one loss was as a -125 favorite to the Giants.
The Dodgers are just 4-8 at home against the Giants this year.
In 5 starts since coming off the IL with shoulder issues, Gonsolin has had 2 strong starts (both vs. Arizona) and 3 subpar starts. He had an ERA of 4.05, 1.15 WHIP, while averaging 4 innings.
DeSclafani has faced the Dodgers six times this year with mixed results (2 strong starts, 2 middle of the road, and 2 bad). In his 3 starts in Los Angeles, he had a 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 15.2 innings.
As much as people want to lean on the "must-win" game narrative or how they can't see the Dodgers losing, I can, and I will continue to take the value on the Giants. Especially with the Dodgers coming off a very difficult 1-0 loss in which Gavin Lux looked to have hit the game-winning home run only to be disappointed.
I think both pitchers will give up some runs tonight, but the Giants seem to have the Dodgers number especially in this spot. I look for them to close out the series tonight.
BET – Over 4 runs F5 (-115) for 1.15 RW buck
BET – Giants ML (+125) for 1 RW buck