The first lesson learned of the 2022 MLB season is "do not put stock in mediocre offenses against mediocre pitching." It was a tough day yesterday watching both the Cubs and Mariners scrape out a couple of runs each knowing I needed 5 runs from both. Add in the Astros doing the same thing against the Diamondbacks.
Back to the drawing board today and will look to get behind some stronger starting pitching which is more of a constant to rely on. Note with a lot of day games and weather issues, this is a tougher slate so play close to the vest. Also, keep an eye on lineups today as we could see a lot of rest days for vets and platoon plays.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies 1:05 PM EDT (Phillies -115, Total 8.5)
It isn't very often where you get Scherzer at EVEN money, and it usually means there is a much better team or starting pitcher on the other side. That is not the case here, as the Mets are the better team and Max is the better pitcher. The Mets have started off strong and the Phillies are not hitting. Even more surprising is this total of 8.5 runs as only 7 out of Scherzer's last 30 starts have had a total of 8.5 or higher.
BET – Mets for 1.05 RW buck (-105)
BET – Mets/Phillies under 4.5 runs F5 for 1.3 RW buck (-130)
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks 3:40 PM EDT (Astros -155, Total 9)
The Diamondbacks rank dead last in batting average at .130 (next lowest is the Mariners at .180) and in slugging percentage (.260). The total (9.0) is baffling because Kelly is a solid pitcher on the other side and the Astros are middle of the pack in hitting right now. Oftentimes, a team's reputation ends up dictating the number but if you consider how bad the D-backs are hitting right now, this total should be closer to 8.
BET – Diamondbacks under 3.5 runs for 1.05 RW buck (-105)
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants 3:45 PM EDT (Giants -130, Total 7.5)
Sometimes when I look at a game, the way to play jumps off the page immediately. That's what happened here. We have an interesting line move on the total as it went from 7 to 7.5, but there is some juice on the under. With two great starting pitchers and two lineups that are not at full strength, I will look at ways to play the under.
First off, the Giants no longer have Buster Posey, also Evan Longoria and LaMonte Wade Jr are out. Then, with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, we could see several left-handed hitters on the bench including Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, and Steven Duggar. While I understand playing the platoon game, the drop off in hitters is significant.
The only way this completely blows up on me is if either team hits a home run with a couple of runners on, but with this ballpark and both pitchers on the mound with sub-optimal lineups, I am willing to roll the dice. I am adding in a bonus bet on the under for the game at 3.5 runs in case this just becomes a complete pitcher's duel.
BET – Padres/Giants under 7.5 for 1.2 RW buck (-120)
BET – Padres/Giants under 3.5 runs F5 for 1.15 RW buck (-115)
BONUS BET – Padres/Giants under 3.5 runs for 0.25 RW buck (+475)