I'm honing in on two Wednesday evening games where I envision a low-scoring affair and yet another dominant performance by Zack Wheeler in a game in which the Phillies are very heavy home favorites.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins 6:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Josiah Gray vs. Elieser Hernandez
The Pick: Under 4.5 runs – first 5 innings (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Under 8 runs (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Gray has had his share of troubles over his last four trips to the mound, pitching to an 11.42 ERA, 1.96 WHIP and 3.1 HR/9 across 17.1 innings. The right-hander did stymie the Marlins at LoanDepot Park right before the start of that ugly stretch, however, allowing just two earned runs over six innings. Miami also has just a .283 wOBA and -11.8 wRAA against righties at home in the last month. Meanwhile, Hernandez has yielded three ER or less in all but one of his nine appearances and faces a Nats team with a .222 average and pedestrian .307 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month.
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies 7:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Keegan Akin vs. Zack Wheeler
The Pick: Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Phillies To Score First and Win (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Wheeler has thrown at least eight strikeouts in 15 of his 30 starts, and he owns a 10.6 K/9 at home. The Orioles also come into Wednesday's matchup with a 28.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month and have just a .222 average and .285 wOBA in that split as well. The Phillies are massive favorites here in terms of the straight moneyline with Akin (1-6, 7.71 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 2.2 HR/9 on road) on the hill for Baltimore, but I'll get around the heavy juice with the secondary pick.