Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays 7:10 pm ET
The line in the game opened Red Sox -122 with a total of 10.5 and was quickly bet up to -140 and 11. I still think the -140 is low when you factor the Red Sox at home and the opposing pitcher. The Red Sox offense has been quiet in the last 30 days, but they 21-9 straight up at home in their last 30, 12-3 in last 15. The last 5 games in Fenway have gone under the total.
One of my system plays is laying -1.5 runs on the favorite at home when the total is 10 or higher. In a game with an expected high run total, laying the -1.5 runs is not as much of a risk vs. a lower game total like 8 or less.
BET – Red Sox -1.5 F5 (+125) for 1 RW buck
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds 8:05 pm ET
The Cubs opened -130 with a total of 8.5 at home against the Reds. The Reds are without Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Nick Senzel, while the Cubs are without Javy Baez. One of the things we know about Kyle Hendricks is that he goes 6 innings and allows 2 runs or less in the majority of his games. The Reds are hitting .258 at home vs. .238 on the road. The Reds have gone under the total in their last 5 road games. The Cubs are 6-1 in Hendricks last 7 home starts.
Hendricks is one of the most profitable F5 pitchers which also plays into the under 2.5 earned runs as he should go 6 innings. The Cubs are 27-15-6 at home for F5s this season which has been the 3rd most profitable.
BET – Hendricks under 2.5 earned runs (+120) for 1 RW buck
BET – Cubs -0.5 F5 (+115) for 1 RW buck
Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies 9:38 pm ET
This game opened Angels -160 and 8 and was quickly bet down to -145 and 7.5; there has been heavy line movement on the Rockies (Marquez) and the under. The Rockies are just 2-5 in Marquez road starts and 2-5 to the under. The Rockies have been the worst team on the road in F5s at 8-31-7 (-$2,055), while the Angels are 25-18-6 at home in F5s. The Rockies are also dead last in runs scored in the F5 with just 1.28 per game.
BET – Angels -0.5 F5 (-105) for 1 RW buck