Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Mets 7:10 pm EDT
The Mets are 14-6 overall and 5-2 at home. I love getting the Mets at -124 tonight as Megill is still undervalued by sportsbooks and Nola is overrated on the road. The Mets have allowed 2.57 runs at home with a differential of 2.1.
The Phillies were 6-10 before sweeping the Rockies getting them back to 10-10. I don't put a lot of stock in the sweep in the Rockies at home as they are a much different team at home vs. road.
I like the Mets to win a low-scoring game at home on Friday night.
MLB Best Bet – Mets to win for 1.24 RW buck (-124 FanDuel)
MLB Best Bet – Phillies under 3.5 runs for 1.32 RW buck (-132 FanDuel)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies 8:40 pm EDT
I rode the Rockies all last year at home and will continue to do so especially against one of the worst teams in baseball, the Reds. The Rockies always seem to be incredible value at home against the money or run line. We get them at -120 tonight and I think the pitching matchup is the reason for the short number (Hunter Greene vs. Antonio Senzatela). Even though Greene has a strong pedigree and electric arm, its Coors and he is still a rookie. And the Reds bullpen will come into play. The Reds are 2-9 on the road, and 2nd worst in ROI -54% against the money line.
MLB Best Bet– Rockies to win for 1.20 RW buck (-120 DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 pm EDT
I can see it already being a common theme taking the run line this year with certain teams as the Dodgers being one of them. The Tigers travel all the way West to unfamiliar territory and the Dodgers are 6-1 at home with a +67% ROI against the run line. The Dodgers are tied with the Giants for the best run differential in baseball at +44 runs while the Tigers are -17 runs and ranked 22nd. The Dodgers have a major league-high run differential at home with 5.6-2.1 (+3.5 runs).
MLB Best Bet– Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (-118 FanDuel)
MLB Best Bet– Tigers under 3 runs for 1.05 RW buck (-105 FanDuel)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants 10:15 pm EDT
Much like the Dodgers and Mets, I will continue to ride the Giants. Especially at home with a strong starting pitcher against a very weak offensive team. The Giants also have a very strong run differential at home with a 4.38-2.38 runs per game average. The Nationals have lost 8 in a row while scoring three runs just twice. The Nationals are going with starting pitcher Aaron Sanchezand the Giants have Alex Wood on the mound for a huge mismatch.