MLB Parlay Piece for July 19, 2023
C.J. Abrams 2+ Total Bases (-105)
C.J. Abrams did not deliver for us in this longshot parlay yesterday, but we stand by the read and are consequently, running things back again on Wednesday. Abrams has had much more success against right-handed pitching than against southpaws in 2023, meaning that tonight is another good matchup for him against the soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks. Against right-handed pitching, Abrams has a respectable .270 batting average and a .744 OPS. Since the beginning of July, he has been swinging a hot bat – posting a .353 batting average and a .960 OPS. He is a worthwhile risk as part of this longshot same-game parlay this evening.
Dominic Smith 3+ Total Bases (+265)
In 2023, Dominic Smith is far removed from his breakout 2020 campaign, but he has still proven himself to be a guy capable of leaving the yard in the proper conditions. This evening, he will get to face Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 16 home runs to left-handed batters in his last 75.0 innings of work. Overall in that span, Hendricks has allowed 34 extra-base hits across the platoon split. Simply, this is a favorable matchup for Smith – either a big-fly or a two-hit night have the potential to get the job done for us here.
Over 10.5 (+140)
Tonight, the wind at Wrigley Field is forecasted to be blowing out toward left field at around seven miles per hour at first pitch. Wrigley Field is one of the oldest ballparks in the MLB, and its construction allows wind to play a significant role in home games for the Chicago Cubs on a daily basis. In January 2007, Chris Constancio documented in The Hardball Times that “more than 23% of fly balls result in home runs when the wind is blowing strongly toward the ivy-covered outfield walls, but only 13% of fly balls result in home runs when the wind is blowing in from the outfield.” Trevor Williams and Kyle Hendricks are both pitchers who give up their fair share of fly balls, making the over a particularly intriguing look in this spot.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Altanta Braves -1.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Ronald Acuna 2+ Hits (+150 FanDuel)
Austin Riley 1+ RBI (+100 FanDuel)
Matt Olson 1+ RBI (-115 FanDuel)