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MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Bets for Friday, July 22

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals


This line opened Royals -110 and quickly moved to Rays -125/-130 and rightfully so. The Royals should never be favored against the Rays and bettors have agreed. The Rays are 6-1 SU in their last 7 and 9-2 at KC, so recent and historical trends favor them. I write a lot about having a gut feeling on numbers and when something does not look right.

The total of 9 in this game jumps out because the Rays average home total is 7.3 and average road total is 8.1, so why would this total be so much higher? The Rays are just 5-7 in games with a total of 9 or higher (all road games) and they are 10-2 in games where the total was 6.5. The Royals' average totals are 8.5 overall, 8.4 road, 8.6 home. 17 of the Royals home games have had a total of 9 or greater with a 9-8 record to the over.

Both starting pitchers are serviceable in Brad Keller vs. Drew Rasmussen. But there are also some key hitters out with Wander Franco, Harold Ramirez, Yandy Diaz, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Salvador Perez on the injured list.

MLB Best Bets for Rays at Royals

  • Rays -125 for 1.25 RW buck (FanDuel)

  • Rays/Royals UNDER 9 runs for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)

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Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

One of the first things you should look at in a baseball slate is the status of the Rockies. Are they HOME or AWAY? Because they will dictate what direction you want to take. Since we have the Rockies on the road, I look to bet against them. Even more so when facing an ace pitcher in Corbin Burnes. Most bettors agree as this line has moved from its opener of -215 to -292. With such a huge line move, I immediately look at the run line to grab value.

There is a huge disparity in starting pitching with the Brewers throwing Corbin Burnes (1.59 ERA last 7 starts) vs. the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela (over 5.00 ERA and has not pitched in 3 weeks). Colorado is just 15-27 SU on the road. Take the home team and the superior pitcher.

MLB Best Bets for Rockies at Brewers

  • Brewers -1.5 runs for 1.25 RW buck (DraftKings -125)

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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a team I want to keep close tabs on in the second half of the year as they get healthy. They play in a division that is ripe for the taking, and I love for them to win the AL Central as a futures bet.

Lucas Giolito has had two strong starts vs. Cleveland this year as the White Sox won 4-1 and 2-1. Cal Quantrill is the type of pitcher that struggles against the stronger lineups as his strikeout to walk ratio is 63/30 in 100.2 innings.

MLB Best Bets for Guardians at White Sox

  • White Sox -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +130)

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MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Rays -125 for 1.25 RW buck (FanDuel)

  • Rays/Royals UNDER 9 runs for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)

  • Brewers -1.5 runs for 1.25 RW buck (DraftKings -125)

  • White Sox -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +130)

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