MLB Player Props Today
Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+350), FanDuel
In 2022, Cody Bellinger ranked 92nd in home runs per plate appearance out of 277 batters with at least 300 trips to the batter’s box in 2022. However, his ranking was driven down significantly because he had only two home runs in 160 plate appearances against southpaws. When facing right-handed pitching, Bellinger had 17 home runs in 390 plate appearances – a 4.4% home run rate. Against right-handed pitching, Bellinger had a fly ball rate of 50.4%. He made weak contact only 15.1% of the time that he put the ball in play. The winds are blowing out today at Wrigley Field and Bellinger has an extremely favorable matchup against Chris Flexen, who rarely gets anyone to swing and miss. At significant plus money, this is a worthwhile risk for bettors.
Patrick Wisdom to hit a home run (+300), FanDuel
Last year, Patrick Wisdom ranked 35th in home runs per plate appearances out of 277 batters with at least 300 trips to the batter’s box. On the season, he ranked in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate, indicating that he had an optimal swing path for a home run on a frequent basis when he was able to make contact. Against right-handed pitching specifically, he had a 50.7% fly ball rate, hitting 15 home runs. He had a 12.2% barrel rate or higher against fastballs, offspeed offerings, and breaking pitches last year – meaning that he has the potential to do damage with anything that is thrown at him. The main risk here is that Wisdom swings and misses more than any player in the league. This is a high-risk, high-reward prop – allocate your investment accordingly.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Julio Rodriguez more than 1.5 total bases, PrizePicks
Julio Rodriguez is not off to a blistering start in 2023, but he is still batting .265 and has six extra-base hits in his first 54 plate appearances. Like last season, Rodriguez has been slightly better against right-handed pitching, particularly from a power perspective. In 2022, Rodriguez had a .233 ISO and a .519 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching compared to a .200 ISO and a .475 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Expect him to do damage tonight on an evening when the weather conditions are extremely hitter-friendly at Wrigley Field.