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MLB Same Game Bets: Expert Bets and Player Props for Padres vs. Rockies, August 2

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

The San Diego Padres are just 53-55 this season, so they are going to need a strong final two months to squeeze into the MLB Playoffs. Sitting five games back of a Wild Card spot and with such little room for error going forward, the Padres shouldn't drop the third game of this series to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday afternoon.

The Rockies lineup, or whatever is left of it after the injuries to Kris Bryant and Charlie BlackmonAND the trades of C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, should have their hands full against the Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.


Musgrove (10-3, 3.05 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in the game lately. Since June 1st, Musgrove has produced a 1.88 ERA, second best in all of baseball, bested only by his teammate Blake Snell (0.71 ERA). He has gotten better progressively, recording quietly dominant numbers in July, going 4-1, with a 1.45 ERA, a .204 opponent batting average and a 0.87 WHIP. Musgrove probably would've gotten more publicity for his work if his team weren't two games below .500, but he should continue his excellence against this depleted Colorado lineup.

Since July 1st, the Rockies have the highest strikeout percentage of any team in the National League, 26.6 percent. Musgrove should pick up plenty of strikeouts, after all, he is averaging 10.45 K/9 since July 1st.

Things haven't been going as smoothly for Musgrove's mound opponent, Kyle Freeland. Freeland struggled in his last outing, his first start in his return from a 15-Day IL stint, allowing nine hits and three earned runs in four ugly innings against the lowly Oakland Athletics. Freeland now sports a .291 opponent average and a pedestrian 1.48 WHIP. Among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched since June 1st, the Rockies' left-handed pitcher carries an xFIP of 5.76, fourth worst in all of Major League Baseball.

The Padres lineup features a few right-handed hitters that have feasted off southpaws. Ha-Seong Kim has been a steady presence atop this batting order, hitting .417 over his last seven games. Kim has recorded a .311/.396/.541 slash line against lefties this season, and has recorded a .313 average over 16 career at-bats against Freeland.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has been cold, going 5-for-31 (.161) in his last seven games. Against lefties, Tatis has produced an OPS of .950, that's 182 points higher than his OPS against same-sided pitchers (.768). History shows that Tatis could break out of his slump on Wednesday, as he is 7-for-21 (.333) with a home run against Freeland.

Tatis makes for an interesting home run prop bet as well, sitting just one home run shy of career home run No. 100.

Manny Machado is batting .318 in his career against Freeland, and is hitting a solid .292 over the last week. Machado has crushed lefties this season with a slash line of .330/.404/.536, so he should be able to make an impact in the middle of this lineup at Coors Field.

While I like the Padres to win this game, I'm not in love with runline or moneyline, so I'll back some player props here instead.

San Diego has a good opportunity to score some runs, get a little closer to that .500 mark and the Wild Card spot, and show that they are not dead . . . yet.


MLB Best Bets for Padres vs. Rockies

  • Ha-Seong Kim 2+ Hits (+105 FanDuel)

  • Manny Machado to Hit A Home Run (+300 FanDuel)

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit A Home Run (+200 FanDuel)

  • Joe Musgrove 7+ Strikeouts (+134 FanDuel)

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