MNF Doubeheader Pick5

Lions @ Buccaneers — Controlled Chaos

Baker Mayfield — 2 + Passing Touchdowns

Line: Over 1.5 TD ( +120 to +140 range )

Projection: 2.1 TD median

• Red-Zone Rate: Tampa passes on 63 % of red-zone plays (top 3 NFL).

• Efficiency: Mayfield ranks 8th in EPA per dropback when kept clean ( +0.27 ), and Detroit’s front ranks 24th in pressure rate the last 3 weeks.

• Receiver Chemistry: Mike Evans + Chris Godwin combine for 72 % of target share inside the 20.

Sharp Angle: Books shade this line down because of Detroit’s brand name defense, but without interior push they surrender short-area TDs. Two passing scores is the median—not ceiling—outcome here.

Jahmyr Gibbs — Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

Usage: 4.8 targets per game | Routes run on 73 % of dropbacks

Catch Rate: 91 %

• Scheme Fit: The offense uses Gibbs as a slot hybrid on early downs; Tampa’s linebackers have allowed 7.9 yards per target to RBs.

• Script: Bucs bring heat (Top-5 blitz rate), forcing check-downs.

• Explosive Potential: A single screen can clear half the line.

Sharp Angle: Low line + high variance role. Gibbs’ efficiency vs pressure schemes makes 26.5 look five yards too cheap.

Mike Evans — Over 61.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown

Projection: 6 targets | 5 recs | 78 yards | 0.7 TD

Target Share: 31 % ( league leader tier )

• Coverage Note: Detroit plays Cover 3 on 58 % of snaps; Evans averages 3.4 YPRR vs single-high.

• End Zone Usage: 14 targets inside the 10 since 2024 (start of last season), most in NFL.

• Defensive Matchup: CB Jerry Jacobs has allowed a 132 QB rating when targeted.

Sharp Angle: Classic correlation prop with Baker 2 + TDs. Evans’ ceiling lines up with game script — Lions score → Bucs answer through Evans.

Optional Ladder: 75 + yards (+160), Anytime TD (+140).

Texans @ Seahawks — Efficiency over Explosives

Cooper Kupp — Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

Usage: Limited snap count but efficient per route ( 2.7 YPRR ).

Target Share: 20 % on just ~55 % route participation.

• Matchup: Houston corners play zone ~70 % of snaps — Kupp eats vs zone ( 2.9 YPRR ).

• Script: Seattles’ offense forces a high tempo, which creates more dropbacks for Seattle.

• Efficiency: Kupp averages 10.6 yards per target against non-press looks.

Sharp Angle: Books price him like a decoy due to snap count, but his target rate per route is elite. He can clear this on 4 catches.

Dalton Schultz — Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Usage: 6 targets per game | Route rate 83 % | Team target share 18 %

• Matchup: Seahawks allow the 2nd-most yards to tight ends (63 per game).

• Scheme: Bobby Slowik has leaned on TE floods vs cover 3 — Schultz is the clear beneficiary.

• QB Chemistry: CJ Stroud has a 117 QB rating targeting Schultz between the hashes.

Sharp Angle: One of the most underpriced volume plays on the slate. He’s a quiet stack partner for Stroud lineups or solo prop bet to anchor your card.