MNF DOUBLEHEADER: BUF/ATL & CHI/WAS

BILLS at FALCONS

James Cook — Over 70.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 15 carries / 83 yards median

Yards After Contact: 3.4 (6th among RBs)

Explosive Run Rate: 14% of carries gain 10+ yards

• Why It Works: Atlanta’s front plays light boxes and ranks 28th in run-stop win rate. They sell out to prevent explosives through the air, leaving open interior gaps.

• Bills Script: With Josh Allen’s designed runs scaled back, Cook’s early-down workload has jumped from 11.5 → 16.8 carries per game since Week 2.

• Sharp Angle: 70.5 is a discount on a volume RB in a soft front — especially indoors where Buffalo’s pace spikes.

Play: Over 70.5 rushing yards (core).

Alt Ladder: 90+ (+160).

Bijan Robinson — Over 72.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 18 carries / 95 yards median

Yards per Carry: 5.1

Missed Tackles Forced: 23 (2nd in NFL)

• Why It Works: Bills are 30th in opponent rush EPA since Week 3, allowing chunk runs between the tackles.

• Environment: Dome game, perfect footing, and a coaching staff committed to establishing balance early.

• Usage: Bijan has 20+ touches in back-to-back weeks and leads the league in first-read RB runs (36%).

Sharp Angle: This isn’t a pace-down game — it’s efficiency-driven. Both RBs can eclipse 70+.

 Khalil Shakir — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 6 targets / 5 receptions / 58 yards

Slot Snap Share: 68%

Catch Rate: 84% (top 5 among WRs)

• Why It Works: Falcons’ zone defense allows the highest slot target share in the NFL (42%).

• Game Plan: Allen vs Cover 3/Cover 6 defenses equals short-game rhythm throws.

• Trend: Since Week 2, Shakir has seen a 22% target share and has gone over 4.5 receptions in 3 of 4 games.

Sharp Angle: This is Josh Allen’s safety-valve volume bet — steady floor, elite efficiency.

BEARS at COMMANDERS

 D’Andre Swift — Over 2.5 Receptions

Projection: 4 catches / 28 yards

Target Share: 14% among RBs (top 10)

Catch Rate: 92%

• Why It Works: Washington blitzes heavily (top-3 rate), leaving soft checkdown lanes.

• Usage: Swift has seen at least 3 targets in every game where Bears trail — game script likely repeats here.

• Scheme Note: Chicago’s designed screens have quietly climbed to 8% of total pass plays (league average 4%).

Sharp Angle: Public still prices Swift like an early-down runner. His passing-game role is secure — 3+ catches is his floor in negative scripts.

Deebo Samuel — Over 56.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 5 receptions / 68 yards

Yards After Catch: 7.8 (top 3 among WRs)

Target Depth: 5.6 yards (short, efficient usage)

• Why It Works: Commanders’ defense ranks 31st in yards after catch allowed.

• Matchup Fit: Bears’ defense has trouble rallying on motion plays — Deebo’s bread and butter.

• Script: With Aiyuk facing bracket coverage and Kittle blocking more vs pressure, Deebo should dominate touches underneath.

Sharp Angle: Line opened at 56.5 because of perceived volatility, but Deebo’s usage is trending upward — he’s averaging 8 targets since Week 2.