MNF Pick5: Panthers @ 49ers

1. Bryce Young — Over 209.5 Passing Yards

The Best Bet of the Game

Bryce Young enters Week 12 after his best passing performance of the year, and while regression is often expected after a breakout game, the matchup actually leans toward a repeat.

San Francisco has quietly become a pass funnel:

• 7th most passing yards allowed (256.1 YPG)

• 2nd-highest completion percentage allowed (69.9%)

• 2nd-highest PROE allowed since Week 5

  
  

  → Teams choose to throw on them.

The scheme fits Bryce’s strengths even more:

• SF runs Cover 3 at a top-five rate over the last month

• Bryce improves from 6.25 → 6.8 YPA vs Cover 3

• CPOE doubles from 3.7% → 7.8%

Carolina runs 11 personnel on 80% of dropbacks, and the 49ers allow:

• 7.43 YPA vs 11 personnel (7th worst)

• 4th highest passer rating

With WR Tetairoa McMillan ascending into true WR1 territory, the Panthers are poised for 35–40 pass attempts, making this over the cleanest and sharpest play of the entire slate.

Fontaine’s Pick: Bryce Young Over 209.5 passing yards

2. Tetairoa McMillan — Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

The Volume Star in a Perfect Matchup

Tet McMillan has emerged as one of the most productive young receivers in football, ranking top-10 in the NFL in yards entering this week. His recent usage is elite:

• 29.8% target share (last 4)

• 36.1% first-read target share

• ~40% of team air yards

He dominates the intermediate middle of the field — an area where San Francisco struggles the most:

• 49ers allow 4th most intermediate-middle YPG

• Tet leads the NFL in intermediate-middle YPG (17.5)

He’s also seeing elevated slot usage recently, and the 49ers are:

• Worst in the NFL vs slot WRs

• Allow the 2nd most yards per game to slot receivers

Deep ball? SF allows the 6th most deep YPG and 5th most deep completions. Tet leads the team in deep targets.

Everything aligns. Volume + matchup + game script = smash spot.

Fontaine’s Pick: Tetairoa McMillan Over 65.5receiving yards

3. Rico Dowdle — Under 75.5 Rushing Yards

The Most Undervalued Fade on the Board

Rico Dowdle has taken on the lead role, but the matchup and run profile scream under:

Efficiency Collapse:

• 3.68 YPC last 3 games

• 40% success rate

• Only 3.2% explosive run rate

49ers Run Defense Profile:

• Allow high success rate → but low explosiveness

• 11th fewest explosive runs allowed

• 14th best YPC allowed

• 2nd lowest explosive rate allowed on inside runs

• Rico runs 66% inside

The only way Rico hits 76+ yards is if Carolina leads in the second half, which is unlikely as 7.5-point underdogs.

Fontaine’s Pick: Rico Dowdle Under 75.5 rushing yards

4. Xavier Legette — Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

The Most Mispriced Prop of the Game

Legette is the best value on the Panthers side:

• 45% slot rate

• 49ers allow the 2nd most slot YPG

• More first-read share than Jalen Coker

• More end zone + deep involvement

• Price far too low for his usage trend

He has hit this number in nearly every competitive game this season.

If Bryce throws 32–40 times — and he will — Legette only needs 3 catches to cash.

Fontaine’s Pick: Xavier Legette Over 23.5 receiving yards

5. George Kittle — Over 56.5 Receiving Yards

The 49ers’ Answer to Carolina’s Coverage Shells

Carolina’s defensive structure (heavy zone, heavy Cover 3) funnels targets toward tight ends and inside receivers.

Kittle vs Cover 3:

• TPRR: 0.21 → 0.26 (+23.8%)

• YPRR: 1.79 → 2.13 (+19%)

Carolina allows:

• 9th most YPG to slot/inline receiving

• Highest CPOE allowed to intermediate routes

• Big leak vs middle-of-field passing

With Jaycee Horn locking down the perimeter and both SF perimeter receivers facing tougher matchups, Kittle becomes Purdy’s safety valve and main chain-mover.

Fontaine’s Pick: George Kittle Over 56.5 receiving yards