MNF Pick5: Cowboys @ Raiders

Dak Prescott — Over 254.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 268–292 yards | Attempts: 33–37

EPA vs Zone: +0.22

Completion % vs Single-High: 71%

• Why It Works: Raiders run zone-heavy and soft two-high shells to prevent explosives — the exact coverages where Dak thrives.

• Protection Edge: Vegas ranks bottom-8 in pressure rate; Dak gets clean pockets and full-field reads.

• Weapon Upgrade: Having both Lamb and Pickens forces defenses to declare coverage. Someone is always open.

✓ Sharp Angle: Raiders give up sustained drives, not deep bombs. Dak’s intermediate accuracy shines here.

George Pickens — Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (COWBOYS)

Projection: 5 receptions | 82 yards median

Air Yards Share: 32%

Yards per Route vs Man: 3.1 (elite)

• Why It Works: Raiders play off-man + Cover 3, which Pickens destroys.

• Perfect Fit: Dallas uses him as the boundary ISO receiver — slants, comebacks, back-shoulders, posts.

• Game Flow: Raiders can score enough to force Dallas to keep their foot on the gas.

✓ Sharp Angle: Raiders don’t have a corner who can match Pickens physically. 65.5 is a discount line.

CeeDee Lamb — Over 6.5 Receptions

Projection: 7–9 receptions | 85 yards

Target Share: 29%

Beats Zone Coverage: 78% catch rate vs Cover 3 / 4

• Why It Works: Lamb is the high-volume chain mover against soft coverage.

• Complementary Role: Pickens forces safety attention → Lamb gets free option-route access underneath.

• Trend: Has cleared 7 catches in 4 of his last 5 competitive games.

✓ Sharp Angle: Raiders concede middle-field completions. Lamb punishes that every time.

Dallas Money Line

Dallas has multiple edges here:

• QB Advantage: Prescott is significantly more efficient than Geno Smith in 2025.

• Weapons: Lamb + Pickens are a top-5 WR duo in the league.

• Defense: Dallas ranks top 6 in red-zone defense and top 8 in 3rd-down EPA.

• Raiders O-line: Bottom 10 in pressures allowed — Dallas gets disruptive.

✓ Sharp Angle: Cowboys win this game in more scripts — shootout, grind-out, or turnover-driven.

Tre Tucker — Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 4 receptions | 58 yards median

Average Depth of Target: 14.1 yards

Role: Deep-speed slot/boundary hybrid

• Why It Works: Cowboys’ defense tilts coverage toward big names → Tucker gets single coverage against CB2/CB3.

• Game Script: Raiders will be trailing — meaning Tucker sees extra snaps and deeper routes.

• Explosive Usage: His route tree is vertical. One deep crosser is 25–30 yards by itself.

✓ Sharp Angle: Low volume, big-play WR in a trailing script — perfect overs profile.