MNF Props : Eagles @ Packers

Josh Jacobs — Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 3 catches / 28 yards median | Routes per dropback: 58 %

• Why It Works: Jacobs has become Jordan Love’s built-in pressure counter; he’s averaging 3.8 targets per game.

• Coverage Note: Eagles’ linebackers allow 8.1 yards per target to RBs — bottom 6 in the NFL.

• Script Fit: Green Bay runs plenty of play-action screens and swing routes to slow down Haason Reddick and the rush.

Sharp Angle: A single designed screen and a late check-down can clear 20 yards. His passing-game usage is locked-in regardless of game script.

Josh Jacobs — Anytime Touchdown

Goal-Line Share: 79 % of RB red-zone touches | Inside-5 Carry Rate: 84 %

• Why It Works: Matt LaFleur has re-established Jacobs as the hammer near the goal line.

• Matchup: Philly’s defensive front sells out for sacks — their red-zone rush defense has allowed six TDs in four weeks.

• Correlated Edge: Jacobs ATD pairs perfectly with his receiving prop; if he gets early involvement through screens, he’s likely finishing the drive.

Sharp Angle: Role security + red-zone dominance = high-probability TD.

Romeo Doubs — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 6 recs / 59 yards median | Target Share: 25 %

• Why It Works: Doubs is Love’s timing route specialist. He leads the team in targets vs zone (Eagles play zone ≈ 70 %).

• Efficiency: 2.1 yards per route run vs Cover 3 / 4.

• Game Flow: Expect quick outs, hitches, and option routes to counter Philly’s pass rush.

Sharp Angle: The Eagles will concede short completions — Doubs thrives on volume. Five catches is a floor in this coverage shell.

DeVonta Smith — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 6 recs / 71 yards median | Route Participation: 97 %

• Why It Works: Green Bay plays Cover 2 and quarters shells ≈ 60 % of snaps, which opens soft zones for Smith’s intermediate routes.

• Usage: Smith’s target share rises to 28 % when the defense plays two-high.

• Efficiency: Averaging 9.6 yards per target vs zone looks — top 12 NFL.

Sharp Angle: AJ Brown draws bracket coverage; Smith will see the most favorable looks and volume. This number is 1 catch too low.

Tank Bigsby — Over 8.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 5 carries / 26 yards median | Explosive Run Rate: 13 %

• Why It Works: Bigsby handles mop-up and rotation work behind Barkley — and the staff has increased his designed touches in two-back sets.

• Defensive Fit: Packers rank 22nd in adjusted line yards allowed.

• Low Line: One drive could easily net 10 yards.

Sharp Angle: This is a “role floor” prop — low number for a running back with scripted series. Perfect small anchor for parlay or unit ladder.